OK, so this blog is closed... but I couldn't resist the temptation to scribble down some predictions about international relations in the year ahead. First, a debrief on 2008. Last year's predictions were - predictably - mixed. I was right...
Interesting to see US intelligence crawl out of the shadows again, this time making strong comments about Afghanistan. Like the Iran report back in December, this seems to be a sign of a growing political movement within the intelligence community,...
If there's one thing that the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq - and arguably, sad to say, Vietnam - have proved is that in order to bring peace and stability to a country you need a lot of troops, a...
Next Thursday, 7 February, sees the beginning of the Chinese Year of the Rat, the first in the Chinese Zodiac cycle. No, this isn't some cod astrological analysis: but it does put a little bit of mystical context in. Just...
Bloody hell. Aside from the human tragedy (let's not forget the bystanders who were killed too, not to mention the 140 who died in the last attempt) if anything has implications, this has. I thought that it was Musharraf that...
It seems that there is a realisation now (as probably there always was) in Whitehall that there is no direct military solution to Afghanistan. The problem, however, is something of a chicken-and-egg situation: development will give the people the prosperity...
The Guardian picks up and spins a recent pronouncement by Frederick Kagan of AEI. The operative paragraph and conclusion are below, and deserve a bit of picking apart. A complete collapse of Pakistani government rule that allows an extreme Islamist...
"It is a sad indictment of the current state of Afghanistan that the question now appears to be not if the Taliban will return to Kabul, but when ... and in what form. The oft-stated aim of reaching the city...
Brief profile of the guy responsible for the Islamist takeover in Swat. Revolt in Pakistan’s NWFP: A Profile of Maulana Fazlullah of Swat Maulana Fazlullah, who is now leading an extremist Islam-oriented insurgency in the valley of Swat in the...
"The mujahideen have now acquired such strength that neither Pakistan nor NATO can fight against us. The Taliban are standing on both sides of the border. More operations breed more Taliban, and this time the Taliban will rule the whole...
When I started this blog two years ago, crude was priced at $60 per barrel. Now it's $96. The dollar was $1.21 to the Euro then: now it's $1.44. So go the figures. Something is up. There is a big...
Every now and again, Asia Times Online turns up an absolute tour de force of an analysis: this is one of them. It pulls together every thread in the Afghanistan war, from the significance of events on Pakistan to the...
Six years on from 9/11, and the main thing to report is that there is nothing to report. The newspapers are mercifully free of tearful tributes this time round, though I suspect that 2011 is going to see a whole...
I'm not sure how much I trust Pakistan's APP news agency, so this is to be taken with a pinch of salt. I can also find no reference to a US "International Oil Company" - unless indeed it is an...
Well, Canada is doing a good job too but the Yanks are basically making things worse for ISAF. Below the BBC's Paul Wood summarises the commons defence committee's report on operations in Afghanistan. They can be summarised even further into...
Authoritative figures such as Lords Inge and Ashdown have reiterated the fact that Britain is in the 'Stan for the long haul. Their foreboding does smack of the 'domino effect', but the danger in Pakistan is more real than it...
A report speculating that the possible delivery of Pakistan's long-owed F-16s is part of a geopolitical strategy on the US's part to undermine the SCO's (and therefore China and Russia's) influence. America also worries about a popular uprising against Musharraf's...
Beyond its place in the GWOT, could Pakistan become a staging post for the anti-Iran campaign? The author calls it a new Cold War, alluding to Iraq and Afghanistan's growing proxy war status - but don't forget who sponsors both...
...but in battalions. A brace of articles on the Pakistan-Afghanistan al-Qaeda-Taliban nexus from Asia Times. Prospects of a 'united front' against Musharraf are particularly disturbing, since if Pakistan falls to a Taliban-style revolution or civil war, then the US, India...
Comprehensive analysis of Gwadar from Pakistani point of view. The News - International...
Just when I thought I had the most terribly original thesis topic, The Economist goes and hijacks it - even the title. At least it shows I'm onto something. It's impossible to disconnect the whole India-Pakistan-Afghanistan nexus, partly because Pakistan...
Not one but two articles in today's Asia Times highlight the difficult geopolitical position of Pakistan, sandwiched as it is between both Iran and Afghanistan. In the first, the author notes that the Balochistan issue is a common problem for...
Could it get any more geopolitical? In the space of two paragraphs, we basically drag in everything that's going on in the region and join the dots. All we need now is some Kiplingesque figure with a peg leg and...
Asia Times Online :: South Asia news - India takes a slow road India's involvement with road-building is bitterly opposed by both the Taliban and its sponsors in Pakistan, as the highway under construction not only will boost Afghanistan's connectivity...
Here, the author suggests that the US and NATO are so keen to keep Pakistan and Musharraf on side that they are even considering making the Taliban "part of the solution". Part of the solution to what exactly? It's complicated......
I don't believe in Al Qaeda: that is I don't think there is some kind of unified Islamic terrorist group that can be stopped by any means at the West's disposal. But I do believe that there is such a...
Won't be able to post again this year, so I'll leave you with a nice little festive roundup of this year's flashpoints. Predictions for next year? On top of the usual, Somalia, Syria, Zimbabwe and of course Pakistan - watch...
The problem with the Afghan-Pakistan conflict is that many of those involved belong to neither. The Pushtun are not in league with the post-Westphalian nation-state system, nor are they entrapped by militant Islam. But how long can that continue? An...
Apparently available in The Dawn newspaper - need to keep searching. Abstract follows below. A devastating crisis is unfolding around the Suleiman Range in Balochistan bordering two volatile countries: Afghanistan and Iran. Simmering since the very annexation of Balochistan with...
Tensions there may be between Afghanistan and Pakistan, but this bizarre episode of the blame game will hardly help them. One can only wonder what Karzai was on when he made his comments. BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan...
Hamed Karzai is proposing a Pashtun Loya Jirga involving elements from Afghanistan and Pakistan, both state and non-state actors. It sounds like an attempt to reach some kind of rapprochement with Pakistan and the rebels at the same time; perhaps...
There's been no doubt this last week over who's been generating the most column inches: his publishers must be ecstatic. However, the wisdom of what may have been intended to be Pervez Musharraf's book launch tour is in grave doubt....
Even now, five years on, the events of 11 September 2001 possess a certain surreality, a lack of context in the state of things then and the state of things now. It's certainly one of those 'Kennedy moments', which we...
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