Sorry Brazil, in this analysis the 'big four' are the contender states, Eurasian military-economic powers Russia, India and China plus the rival-cum-ally, the US. Interesting that coinciding with a Condi trip to Beijing comes a possible US military deal with...
Here's the thing, right? There are two clear underlying causes to all the major problems on earth. The first is overpopulation. Overpopulation means that there are too many people chasing after too many resources - energy, water, land etc. which...
Shock and awe! Call out the National Guard and move to DefCon 3! Come on, what did they expect? Everyone knows that the biggest show on earth is also its biggest political platform. Think of the Mexico 1968 Black Power...
Steven Spielberg's decision to withdraw from involvement in Beijing 2008 is laudable (I suspect premeditated from the moment he first signed up), yet misguided. Of all the things he could have chosen to remark upon, choosing Darfur merely gives Beijing...
Suppose that would make it the IPC. Need to source this article, but it's potentially significant. All of course rests on the outcome of Pakistan's election on 18 February. It comes against the backdrop of an Indian admiral's concerns about...
It's looking increasingly like we have just one week to go before the big events of 2008 really begin. Many of the papers are giving 17 February as the date for Kosovo to declare independence, and it already appears that...
With the Beijing Olympics very much round the corner, there's been a real slew of articles recently, reflecting a renewed and critical interest into what's really going on in China. While the article quoted below really adds little new to...
Next Thursday, 7 February, sees the beginning of the Chinese Year of the Rat, the first in the Chinese Zodiac cycle. No, this isn't some cod astrological analysis: but it does put a little bit of mystical context in. Just...
"Yankee go home, but take me with you!" How long is that going to last? This writer seems to believe tha the European and Chinese ways are catching on more now than the American way. I'm slightly sceptical as to...
Pak's new port has strategic implications for India: Navy chief-India-The Times of India The Gwadar port being built by Pakistan with Chinese assistance in its Baluchistan coast has "serious strategic implications for India", Naval Chief, Admiral Sureesh Mehta has said....
A short but insightful look at China's rural economy. It's easy to be blinded by the figures on China's booming export economy, but this correspondent notes that with the changing demography of China the mix of different crops is changing....
Well, it's that time again - as the year 2007 draws to a close, we look to the future. And one thing is for sure: the primary foci of this weblog, Pakistan and China, were hardly out of the news...
Bloody hell. Aside from the human tragedy (let's not forget the bystanders who were killed too, not to mention the 140 who died in the last attempt) if anything has implications, this has. I thought that it was Musharraf that...
Just to prove I'm not the only doommonger around here (though my prediction is 2012, Beijing isn't going to scupper the Olympics on any account), Canada's Globe and Mail looks forward to some tense moments in 2008. It's unlikely, however,...
Tucked away in the news-in-briefs, but possible a very significant deal if it can go ahead. Anything that can get a) Japan and China to cooperate and b) help solve the pollution issue has to be very positive indeed. Japan,...
With Pakistan so desperate for the Chinese Yuan, could it be that Musharraf's recent consolidation of his power is in answer to Chinese demands for security and stability? Or would that be "interference in its internal affairs"? Asia Times Online...
Asia Times reports on the $2bn China-Iran Yadaravan oil deal in the wake of the NIE estimate, and analyses the broader implications. With China's opinion being that the US is now waking up to Iran as a regional power, it...
The Guardian picks up and spins a recent pronouncement by Frederick Kagan of AEI. The operative paragraph and conclusion are below, and deserve a bit of picking apart. A complete collapse of Pakistani government rule that allows an extreme Islamist...
Some analysis of largely-unreported recent PLAN exercises and the connection with the Kitty Hawk incident, in which a USN CVBG was turned away from a scheduled visit to Hong Kong. The author notes the influence of certain Taiwan-orientated officers within...
Neat summary of Iran's political and commercial relationships with other nascent Asian powers. Includes some details on the IPI and Chinese economic influence. PINR - Iran Looks for Allies through Asian and Latin American Partnerships On the Asian continent, the...
There had to be one, and note how this author neatly ties up all the conflicting elements in the current drama: internal opposition to Musharraf; the Balochistan rebellion; Afghanistan, America and the GWOT; China and Gwadar; India and Kashmir. The...
One to save and read for later, and not a lot of new int. But this (conservative) report does highlight the increasing threat of Chinese economic intelligence gathering, cyber warfare ("weapons of mass annoyance") and its general commitment to asymmetric...
Michael Klare, author of Blood and Oil, was in Amsterdam today to talk on his conception of the impending energy crisis. While he was a good speaker, seeing him in person did begin to reveal some of the flaws in...
This bears out exactly what I said in my thesis. Guess I'm not that stupid after all. Perhaps under pressure from the US, India has already lost out to China with regard to Burmese energy: a pattern is emerging. Asia...
Exactly as I suggested in my thesis, Indian intransigence over the IPI may well be opening the door to China. Moreover, it's more than likely that the current state of emergency in Pakistan will wipe out the IPI deal once...
It had to happen. Even China is feeling the pinch of the impending global downturn. It's just put up fuel prices by 10%, and the price of pork rocketed this year too. Inflation is at record highs, 6.5% or so....
When I started this blog two years ago, crude was priced at $60 per barrel. Now it's $96. The dollar was $1.21 to the Euro then: now it's $1.44. So go the figures. Something is up. There is a big...
China Brief from the Jamestown Foundation Rapid economic growth has allowed Beijing to dramatically increase defense spending since the late 1990s without compelling Chinese leaders to choose between military modernization and China’s other policy priorities. In the not too distant...
Wide ranging article covering the history of India's relations with its East Asian neighbours along with current concerns such as energy and security threats such as the Taiwan straits. PINR - India Rediscovering East Asia China has been increasing its...
Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan - Gwadar Oil City: Pakistan, China to sign agreements in early 2008 During the forthcoming visit of Chinese president in early 2008, Pakistan and China are set to sign agreements on Chinese...
'Myanmar's "Saffron Revolution", like the Ukraine "Orange Revolution" or the Georgia "Rose Revolution" and the various color revolutions instigated in recent years against strategic states surrounding Russia, is a well-orchestrated exercise in Washington-run regime change, down to the details of...
Will Hutton looks ahead to next week's CCP congress, at which a likely successor to Hu Jintao may be named. Note the date of the potential accession - 2012. Hutton is sceptical as ever about the legitimacy of the process,...
More on Sino-Indian strategic rivalry. Despite an apparent cooling of tension in the last few years, the author notes that Hu Jintao's rise to power comes partly on the back of a hardline attitude towards Tibet, always a bone of...
As both China and India "rise and shine" economically, so geopolitical questions begin to assume greater importance. Whatever the rhetoric from Beijing, China's neighbours are clearly less comfortable about it than ever. That's good for India, which (aside from Pakistan,...
Sanctions. The answer to everything. Impose sanctions on Burma, the international community says, and everything will be fine. Wrong. One only has to look at the plight of Iraq in the 1990s to confirm that, under some circumstances, economic sanctions...
It's not just the moment of truth for Burma. It's a moment of truth for China, and that by implication affects all of us. The question is: is China now a responsible stakeholder in the international community, or simply a...
International Crisis Group - Myanmar: Time for Urgent Action Only China, India, and, to a lesser degree, ASEAN have any influence on the military regime. China has very close economic and political links with Myanmar, while India has developed strong...
Even the US is stepping up support for the current protests in Burma (Myanmar), with a call for added sanctions in the hope of buckling the already-pressured Junta. But like in Sudan, notes Isabel Hilton in The Guardian's Comment is...
Some bland comments from the Indian external affairs minister. But in the long run, can India really balance the tensions in its relationships with the US and the PRC? The problem for New Delhi is that (aside from Russia, perhaps)...
A lengthy but sobering and informative analysis of the crackdown on the Internet in China, specifically at bloggers in the days leading up to the party conference. It sounds much like the situation has deteriorated dramatically since I was blogging...
Interesting to see China advertising its humanitarian interest in Darfur, with a military show accompanied by a pledge to send peacekeepers to join the UN mission (though not combat troops, and an uncertain number). The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is...
Every now and again, Asia Times Online turns up an absolute tour de force of an analysis: this is one of them. It pulls together every thread in the Afghanistan war, from the significance of events on Pakistan to the...
This one's going straight on my blogroll. PostGlobal is a collaboration between The Washington Post and Newsweek that analyses global trends - the fall of America, the rise of China, energy, Islam etc.. In short, it's basically just like my...
Just as with Pakistan, India looks like it will lose out to China in the effort to find secure energy transit routes. PINR - Pipeline Politics: India and Myanmar India has clearly lost an important diplomatic initiative in the attempt...
Missed this: Interesting development. Asia Sentinel - China’s Pipeline Diplomacy In securing approval to build a natural gas pipeline from northern Turkmenistan to China, PetroChina, the country’s largest oil company, has pulled off a move with striking geopolitical implications, providing...
Amid reports that former Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, is criticising the Bush regime for its neglect of Asia comes this report. It is difficult to see India and China forming anything more than a perfunctory strategic relationship -...
A lengthy but useful summary of everything that's important in the world right now pertaining to the linkages between geopolitics and energy. Must look out for this Dilip Hiro guy's book. We can now probably add to this list of...
In July 2007, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation agreed on the foundation of an 'energy club'. In August it will hold its annual summit, and this author considers whether that means another step towards an Asian NATO. PINR - S.C.O. Summit...
As China's commitment in Pakistan, especially through Gwadar increases, so too does their interest in the nation's internal security. Protection of Chinese national ISLAMABAD: Secretary Interior Syed Kamal Shah and Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Luo Zhaohi signed an MoU to...
I think it's a little tenuous to suggest that the sole reason for Musharraf's crackdown on the Lal Masjid was the abduction of seven Chinese brothel workers. However, this author takes a close look at China's strategic relationship with Pakistan...
One of the most frustrating things about writing a thesis on contemporary international issues is that, once you have handed in the text, new developments occur and new information becomes available. This Economist Intelligence Unit brief on China and energy...
A report speculating that the possible delivery of Pakistan's long-owed F-16s is part of a geopolitical strategy on the US's part to undermine the SCO's (and therefore China and Russia's) influence. America also worries about a popular uprising against Musharraf's...
An extremely useful summary of China's energy relations with the Middle East - if only I'd had this while I was writing my thesis. Main point to note, highlighted in italics below, is that the big three - Saudi Arabia,...
The siege of the Lal Masjid is over, but in what looks like an increasingly critical juncture for General Musharraf, the repercussions will now begin. In the next few days, weeks and months, the following questions may be answered. How...
Beyond its place in the GWOT, could Pakistan become a staging post for the anti-Iran campaign? The author calls it a new Cold War, alluding to Iraq and Afghanistan's growing proxy war status - but don't forget who sponsors both...
Rising China, Shining India; the quagmire in the Persian Gulf and America’s Global War on Terror. These are some of the focal points of international politics in 2007, and none of them exist in isolation. For the giant populations of...
Very distressing to read - and I suspect that The Guardian chose not to publish many of Jonathan Watts's pictures. More evidence that many Chinese have scant regard for the world we live in and the things we share it....
China, Pakistan team up on energy | csmonitor.com "I think most security experts are looking at this very closely because this is the closest access point China has to the Persian Gulf," says Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute...
Meetings set for later in April augur well - and China's observer status of the SAARC could be set to make it complement the SCO? Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan - Pak, China to sign 3 accords...
Nothing new here, but worth a quick look. China's footprint in Pakistan - Los Angeles Times Gwadar would provide a more secure corridor for China's fuel and energy supplies in the face of instability in the Persian Gulf and also...
...but in battalions. A brace of articles on the Pakistan-Afghanistan al-Qaeda-Taliban nexus from Asia Times. Prospects of a 'united front' against Musharraf are particularly disturbing, since if Pakistan falls to a Taliban-style revolution or civil war, then the US, India...
Comprehensive analysis of Gwadar from Pakistani point of view. The News - International...
Just when I thought I had the most terribly original thesis topic, The Economist goes and hijacks it - even the title. At least it shows I'm onto something. It's impossible to disconnect the whole India-Pakistan-Afghanistan nexus, partly because Pakistan...
Bob Hope and no hope, and I believe that Bob Hope is no longer available for USO performances in any case. But seriously, the idea of a 'military hotline' from Washington to Beijing is reminiscent of Cold War thinking. Could...
All you need to know. Asia Times Online :: South Asia news - Pakistan port opens new possibilities Some analysts see an operational Gwadar port as China's first foothold in the oil-rich Middle East, as well as providing road and...
Pervez Musharraf's sincere thanks to the Chinese FM. Associated Press of Pakistan - Chinese assistance helped realize dream of Gwadar Port: President General Pervez Musharraf on Tuesday said the dream of the Gwadar Port was realized with China’s assistance and...
Today would be a good day to attack Gwadar, and the authorities know it. Reuters AlertNet - Pakistan steps up security ahead of port opening GWADAR, Pakistan, March 19 (Reuters) - Pakistan tightened security around a coastal town in Baluchistan...
It could well be a slip of the pen, but note the writer's words here. Pakistan's FM is pushing for the Karakoram pipeline as a "contingency plan". Contingency for what, exactly? And it shows the pipeline is still very much...
Anyone would think China has a policy of encirclement... Asia Times Online :: South Asia news - China moves into India's back yard China is all set to drop anchor at India's southern doorstep. An agreement has been finalized between...
The Economist is jolly excited about a new law being passed on private property rights. In fact, the law is merely a rubber stamp on what is already going on (in China these days, they tend to make the laws...
A military spending rise of... er... American proportions. Asian arms race fear as Beijing raises spending | Special reports | Guardian Unlimited "In recent years, China has steadily increased defence spending based on its economic development," Mr Jiang said. "China...
Asia Times Online :: China Business News - China aims to diversify oil sources What has worried Chinese oil-security strategists in recent years is that most of the imported oil comes from the Middle East. Despite China's efforts to diversify...
Not quite as catchy as the 'Silk Road' Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business. China's ever expanding pipeline network has the potential to bring about a significant strategic realignment of...
Asia Times Online :: South Asia news : China-Pakistan rail link on horizon Beijing's involvement in several rail projects in Pakistan is motivated primarily by commercial considerations, but it also sees distinct advantages for its improved transportation and access to...
The author does make a bit of a leap in his logic, but his assessment does sound plausible at least. Militarising Balochistan : outlookindia.com The following details of this project have since become available from an article titled Militarisation of...
The grand opening swiftly aproaches, and writers are beginning to consider the deeper geostrategic significance of Gwadar. yet we still don't really know that much about it. Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and...
From the man who brought us the 'Beijing Consensus' comes this: China's National Image The report argues that China's national image is its greatest strategic threat. The misalignment between China's image of itself and how it is viewed by the...
One thing that continually irritates me about academics is their blind acceptance of the 'China-will-become-a-democracy-eventually' hypothesis, a beloved fantasy that here is dubbed the 'Soothing Scenario'. And, I must admit, that my own opinion that China could buckle under the...
You don't say, India. About time too. IndianExpress.com :: We don’t envy China, will rather emulate it, says FM Recognising China’s prowess in attracting and implementing infrastructure projects, finance minister P. Chidambaram today said India needs to “emulate” China in...
Can Europe Help Tame China’s Environmental Nemesis? BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | China admits to climate failings "Compared with social and economic modernisation, China's ecological modernisation lags far behind," said the research group's director, He Chuanqi. Damn right. The single...
I never thought I'd end up the same political street as Will Hutton, celebrated socialist British economist and former editor of The Observer. I'm also a little suspicious of his sudden all-seeing-eye on China, since he spent most of his...
It's increasingly beginning to look like China has the initiative in the Middle East, not the US. The lynchpin is Iran. Can Washington and Beijing cooperate to head off the incipient crisis? China is one of the only actors that...
I think we can forget about this 'China's Peaceful Rise' myth. This month's missile test puts things into perspective - any weapon designed to knock out enemy satellites is not a passive defence but an aggressive capability. Of course, it...
In other circumstances, I would cry 'nationalism' but in this case I'm with the Chinese. To have a Starbucks in the middle of the Forbidden City is indeed sacriligious (though in other senses it was an apt symbol of globalization,...
If I had the collaterol, I'd set up a Chinese restaurant and a chain of KTV parlours. Or invest in a few security companies. Asia Times Online :: South Asia news - Chinese eye Pakistan's real estate Gwadar is another...
Gwadar and oil politics -DAWN - Business; January 15, 2007 China needs Gwadar port facilities for future oil and gas imports. While there is a suggestion in Pakistan that Gwadar should be declared a free oil port, Beijing is reportedly...
Energy and emissions are bursting onto the mainstream political agenda in a big way already in 2007. First there was the announcement of an EU common energy policy initiative, and now 16 Asian and Pacific states, including Japan, China and...
Logging this to read later. The Chinese Century -- Thursday, Jan. 11, 2007 -- Page 1 -- TIME...
Not as facetious as it may appear. Though bringing its population under control was a burning necessity, the long-term effects of the one-child policy are only just coming into view. No country has ever attempted anything like this on such...
It is becoming more and more obvious by the day that the post-Cold War world is not, after all, multipolar but bipolar. The great powers are the US and China. This is especially obvious when it comes to Middle East...
A dismal assessment of 'rising China' by Britian's leading economist, Will Hutton. Being merely an excerpt from a book, the article lacks detail, but Hutton's basic concern is that the system cannot hold. We shall see. Power, corruption and lies...
The PLA is not known for its frequent overseas sojourns and joint exercises, so it's significant that the partner this time around is Pakistan. Also worth noting is the rhetoric on the evils of 'terrorism' and 'separatism' - one man's...
You don't need a degree in development economics to see who the winners and losers will be. Despite China's economy relying on manufactured exports to the West, it still invests nearly twice as much in R&D as India; I dread...
China is investing ever more in Pakistan, particularly with regard to Gwadar in Balochistan. What the benefits for Pakistan are unclear, other than the general boost to the local economy, since most of the cash is going towards Chinese self-interest....
Well, it would suit Saudi fine. No unwelcome criticism of its human rights record; no irritating demands from Indian and Pakistani workers; just a customer willing to pay high prices for the product. Win-win, apart from the loss of the...
Hu Jintao's visit to India and Pakistan raises interesting questions. The much-vaunted Pakistan-China nuclear deal has so far failed to materialise, presumably either due to pressure from manmohan Singh, or a realisation by Beijing that to encourage Pakistan too much...
If the world were a democracy, 'Chindia' would have the casting vote for sure. But it's not, and the relationship between the Asian giants is a complex one, without doubt. The Economist is swift to point out the theory: The...
If this doesn't look like an omen of impending disaster in China, then what does? Despite the lip service to the environment, the fact that this kind of thing can, and often does, happen is an indication of laissez faire...
Almost everything you needed to know about Balochistan, but were afraid to ask, neatly summed up here. The only aspect which is not dealt with is the presence of the US in Afghanistan and its uneasy influence over Pakistan, and...
No, not Tiananmen, Tiawan, Tibet and torture (hope that doesn't get this website blocked). Now we're talking about the traingular relationships of China, India, Pakistan and the US. I might add Iran in there as well - see below. Asia...
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