OK, so this blog is closed... but I couldn't resist the temptation to scribble down some predictions about international relations in the year ahead. First, a debrief on 2008. Last year's predictions were - predictably - mixed. I was right...
Sorry Brazil, in this analysis the 'big four' are the contender states, Eurasian military-economic powers Russia, India and China plus the rival-cum-ally, the US. Interesting that coinciding with a Condi trip to Beijing comes a possible US military deal with...
Suppose that would make it the IPC. Need to source this article, but it's potentially significant. All of course rests on the outcome of Pakistan's election on 18 February. It comes against the backdrop of an Indian admiral's concerns about...
Pak's new port has strategic implications for India: Navy chief-India-The Times of India The Gwadar port being built by Pakistan with Chinese assistance in its Baluchistan coast has "serious strategic implications for India", Naval Chief, Admiral Sureesh Mehta has said....
Well, it's that time again - as the year 2007 draws to a close, we look to the future. And one thing is for sure: the primary foci of this weblog, Pakistan and China, were hardly out of the news...
Bloody hell. Aside from the human tragedy (let's not forget the bystanders who were killed too, not to mention the 140 who died in the last attempt) if anything has implications, this has. I thought that it was Musharraf that...
Asia Times reports on the $2bn China-Iran Yadaravan oil deal in the wake of the NIE estimate, and analyses the broader implications. With China's opinion being that the US is now waking up to Iran as a regional power, it...
The Guardian picks up and spins a recent pronouncement by Frederick Kagan of AEI. The operative paragraph and conclusion are below, and deserve a bit of picking apart. A complete collapse of Pakistani government rule that allows an extreme Islamist...
Neat summary of Iran's political and commercial relationships with other nascent Asian powers. Includes some details on the IPI and Chinese economic influence. PINR - Iran Looks for Allies through Asian and Latin American Partnerships On the Asian continent, the...
There had to be one, and note how this author neatly ties up all the conflicting elements in the current drama: internal opposition to Musharraf; the Balochistan rebellion; Afghanistan, America and the GWOT; China and Gwadar; India and Kashmir. The...
This bears out exactly what I said in my thesis. Guess I'm not that stupid after all. Perhaps under pressure from the US, India has already lost out to China with regard to Burmese energy: a pattern is emerging. Asia...
Exactly as I suggested in my thesis, Indian intransigence over the IPI may well be opening the door to China. Moreover, it's more than likely that the current state of emergency in Pakistan will wipe out the IPI deal once...
When I started this blog two years ago, crude was priced at $60 per barrel. Now it's $96. The dollar was $1.21 to the Euro then: now it's $1.44. So go the figures. Something is up. There is a big...
Wide ranging article covering the history of India's relations with its East Asian neighbours along with current concerns such as energy and security threats such as the Taiwan straits. PINR - India Rediscovering East Asia China has been increasing its...
India's spectacular growth is only matched by its spectacular poverty, runs the trailer for a recent BBC World debate. Very true, and ultimately (as always with India) it's the very policies designed to protect the poor that damage them most....
I'll never forget a rather unconsidered remark made to me by a Pentagon official shortly after 9/11. I was writing about the sales of Apache gunships to Pakistan, to which the officer replied: "As long as they're helping us against...
More on Sino-Indian strategic rivalry. Despite an apparent cooling of tension in the last few years, the author notes that Hu Jintao's rise to power comes partly on the back of a hardline attitude towards Tibet, always a bone of...
As both China and India "rise and shine" economically, so geopolitical questions begin to assume greater importance. Whatever the rhetoric from Beijing, China's neighbours are clearly less comfortable about it than ever. That's good for India, which (aside from Pakistan,...
Sanctions. The answer to everything. Impose sanctions on Burma, the international community says, and everything will be fine. Wrong. One only has to look at the plight of Iraq in the 1990s to confirm that, under some circumstances, economic sanctions...
It's not just the moment of truth for Burma. It's a moment of truth for China, and that by implication affects all of us. The question is: is China now a responsible stakeholder in the international community, or simply a...
International Crisis Group - Myanmar: Time for Urgent Action Only China, India, and, to a lesser degree, ASEAN have any influence on the military regime. China has very close economic and political links with Myanmar, while India has developed strong...
Even the US is stepping up support for the current protests in Burma (Myanmar), with a call for added sanctions in the hope of buckling the already-pressured Junta. But like in Sudan, notes Isabel Hilton in The Guardian's Comment is...
Some bland comments from the Indian external affairs minister. But in the long run, can India really balance the tensions in its relationships with the US and the PRC? The problem for New Delhi is that (aside from Russia, perhaps)...
Every now and again, Asia Times Online turns up an absolute tour de force of an analysis: this is one of them. It pulls together every thread in the Afghanistan war, from the significance of events on Pakistan to the...
Just as with Pakistan, India looks like it will lose out to China in the effort to find secure energy transit routes. PINR - Pipeline Politics: India and Myanmar India has clearly lost an important diplomatic initiative in the attempt...
Amid reports that former Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, is criticising the Bush regime for its neglect of Asia comes this report. It is difficult to see India and China forming anything more than a perfunctory strategic relationship -...
A lengthy but useful summary of everything that's important in the world right now pertaining to the linkages between geopolitics and energy. Must look out for this Dilip Hiro guy's book. We can now probably add to this list of...
Rising China, Shining India; the quagmire in the Persian Gulf and America’s Global War on Terror. These are some of the focal points of international politics in 2007, and none of them exist in isolation. For the giant populations of...
India will soon be the world’s fifth largest consumer of energy. And there is probably one major reason for this: aircon. Unless you have visited India in the summer months, you won’t appreciate the significance of aircon, but I certainly...
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I used to have an unshakeable faith in karma and the laws of the dao. For evey action, I once thought, there must be an equal and opposite reaction. As long as you do the right thing, you’ll be fine;...
“How can you govern a country that has 500 types of cheese?” Charles de Gaulle once lamented. But if France is hard to rule, then imagine a subcontinent that has 300 million gods. De Gaulle didn’t have an answer to...
'Travellers' never fail to amuse me. They loaf around in their dreadlocks, tattoos and baggy pants in a desperate effort to be different and just end up blending right into their own little crowd. Nowhere more so than here in...
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In Europe you are so used to the electricity coming on at the flick of a switch and water flowing at the turn of a tap you don’t even think about it. Even in Shanghai I had utilities 24/7. No...
6.12 am. Ding Dong! Me, Phil: (Opening door) Namaste… Lakshmi, Housemaid: Namaste. (goes about business) L: Something something something panee something something? P: Er… panee? (go to turn on water) L: Something something something kanna hayng? P: Haa, kuch kanna…....
Meetings set for later in April augur well - and China's observer status of the SAARC could be set to make it complement the SCO? Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan - Pak, China to sign 3 accords...
...but in battalions. A brace of articles on the Pakistan-Afghanistan al-Qaeda-Taliban nexus from Asia Times. Prospects of a 'united front' against Musharraf are particularly disturbing, since if Pakistan falls to a Taliban-style revolution or civil war, then the US, India...
Comprehensive analysis of Gwadar from Pakistani point of view. The News - International...
Just when I thought I had the most terribly original thesis topic, The Economist goes and hijacks it - even the title. At least it shows I'm onto something. It's impossible to disconnect the whole India-Pakistan-Afghanistan nexus, partly because Pakistan...
Iran's nuclear shenanigans have wider repercussions for near neighbours such as India, which may find itself in a diplomatic confrontation with the US. Asia Times Online :: South Asia news - India grapples with energy issues A prominent US legislator,...
Anyone would think China has a policy of encirclement... Asia Times Online :: South Asia news - China moves into India's back yard China is all set to drop anchor at India's southern doorstep. An agreement has been finalized between...
Could it get any more geopolitical? In the space of two paragraphs, we basically drag in everything that's going on in the region and join the dots. All we need now is some Kiplingesque figure with a peg leg and...
Terrorism, as always, has a political motivation and today's attack was obviously intended to derail peace talks between India and Pakistan. Thus the leaders should be applauded for their restraint and unity in condemning it on the one hand without...
Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Burma - not to mention Pakistan. Countries can choose their friends―but not, as Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, has noted, their neighbours. Asia.view | Trouble with the neighbours | Economist.com In its present buoyant mood, India...
It's all about supply, demand and transit. At best the IPI is a potential solution to the Kashmir issue. But at worst it's yet another point of friction. Asia Times Online :: Middle East News - Gas: Iran turns up...
You don't say, India. About time too. IndianExpress.com :: We don’t envy China, will rather emulate it, says FM Recognising China’s prowess in attracting and implementing infrastructure projects, finance minister P. Chidambaram today said India needs to “emulate” China in...
Asia Times Online :: South Asia news - India takes a slow road India's involvement with road-building is bitterly opposed by both the Taliban and its sponsors in Pakistan, as the highway under construction not only will boost Afghanistan's connectivity...
International Relations is an immensely complex subject, and in order to stay focus everyone has pare away a few factors now and again. The southern hemisphere is completely off my radar, and I am also frequently guilty of ignoring the...
Energy and emissions are bursting onto the mainstream political agenda in a big way already in 2007. First there was the announcement of an EU common energy policy initiative, and now 16 Asian and Pacific states, including Japan, China and...
You don't need a degree in development economics to see who the winners and losers will be. Despite China's economy relying on manufactured exports to the West, it still invests nearly twice as much in R&D as India; I dread...
Hu Jintao's visit to India and Pakistan raises interesting questions. The much-vaunted Pakistan-China nuclear deal has so far failed to materialise, presumably either due to pressure from manmohan Singh, or a realisation by Beijing that to encourage Pakistan too much...
If the world were a democracy, 'Chindia' would have the casting vote for sure. But it's not, and the relationship between the Asian giants is a complex one, without doubt. The Economist is swift to point out the theory: The...
Almost everything you needed to know about Balochistan, but were afraid to ask, neatly summed up here. The only aspect which is not dealt with is the presence of the US in Afghanistan and its uneasy influence over Pakistan, and...
No, not Tiananmen, Tiawan, Tibet and torture (hope that doesn't get this website blocked). Now we're talking about the traingular relationships of China, India, Pakistan and the US. I might add Iran in there as well - see below. Asia...
As always, it come down to economics in the end. But at the end of the day, 'One China' has to stop somewhere. Beijing cannot keep on claiming all areas on the edges of its current borders to be Chinese...
It's been ten years since the last visit of a Chinese leader to India, and border disputes and trade will be high on the agenda. It'll be interesting to see the outcome of the discussions, if indeed such becomes public...
The last few weeks - which have seen China tighten its grip over Africa and Asia, and the Republicans lose their grip in the Capitol and rethink their whole strategy - has generated a slew of articles over at Asia...
Can't see it happening just yet - both China and India still have a long way to go before their economies are truly liberalised, though the PRC is perhaps a bit ahead. But at least the idea is out there,...
Though there are prospects for co-operation, it may just be a short term measure in a more permanent pattern of conflict. Asia Times Online :: South Asia news - India-China work out new energy synergies While China has been accommodating...
"We are used to thinking in terms of conventional warfare between nations, but energy is becoming a weapon of choice for those who possess it." Such is the assesment of Senator Richard Lugar, and it is not a bad one...
I confess to having thought that the Non-Aligned Movement died a quiet death sometime around the 1980s, but this week's summit in Havana tends to disprove that, even if the best picture I could find was of Nasser, Tito and...
Reflecting its increasingly proactive stance in international affairs, China has called for the WTO to re-open the Doha round. BBC NEWS | Business | China urges trade talks revival After meeting Mr Lamy, the WTO's director general, Chinese commerce minister...
Tory leader David Cameron, as always endearingly fluffy, has drafted an editorial on his policy towards India. He's even blogging his current trip (oh how modern of you, David, well done) complete with YouTube-style videos. Of course it's a barefaced...
BBC NEWS | Business | India to put $1bn in African oil China is involved in Sudan, Nigeria, Zimbabwe... now India gets in on the act. "India and China - because of their population demands, economic growth and increasing prosperity...
Asia Times Online :: South Asia news - India's foray into Central Asia It is Tajikistan's geographic location that has drawn India to this former Soviet republic. Tajikistan shares borders with China, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. A narrow stretch of...
Elizabeth Mills at Asia Times Online seems to think that the whole $200bn Gwadar port project could end up a massive disaster due to the security situation in Balochistan. This could well be correct, but let's stand back for a...
Security Watchtower Useful summary of links and information on the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project....
Battleground Balochistan - HindustanTimes.com Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting Tariq Azeem levelled this charge at a joint press conference with Major General Shaukat Sultan, the director-general of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR). "The weapons recovered from miscreants in Balochistan...
Over a billion people means a lot of problems. But while the Bombay attacks and the Kashmir conflict have a high profile on the international scene, the Maoist insurgency in India does not. Though Manmohan Singh terms it the country's...
Lots of useful stats and analysis on the Iran-Pakistan-India LNG pipeline, and more besides on India's energy issues. Asia Times Online :: South Asia news - Price imbroglio stymies Iran pipeline The United States is no longer the main stumbling...
Guardian Unlimited | Special reports | Pakistan launches huge nuclear arms drive An interesting exchange: Commodore Uday Bhaskar of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Analysis in Delhi suggested the timing of the report could be intended to influence the...
More doom, gloom and rampant speculation from Asia Times' Chan Akya. However, there is a tenuous point to it: We have to recognize that no established Islamic power has the ability to strike outside of its immediate border. The armed...
Go to town with China, but write home about India Nice collection of statistics on relative economic indicators. Here's an interesting one: On the human development front, China’s human development index (HDI) ranking slipped from 82 in 1991, to 85...
The Spanish Civil War was really just a prelude to World War II. Could a similar pattern of events alreay be unfolding? Perhaps somewhat fanciful, premature and over-the-top, but at least someone is thinking about it. Asia Times' Chan Akya...
This guy just got back to China after a visit to Delhi. I think he got the shock of his life. BBC NEWS | Programmes | From Our Own Correspondent | India struggles to catch China Every time you turn...
Oxford Professor and all-round commentator Timothy Garton-Ash takes a timely look at the state of the world in mid-2006. His analysis is bleak. Of course, no writer on current affairs has the benefit of hindsight and it'll be a long...
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