OK, so this blog is closed... but I couldn't resist the temptation to scribble down some predictions about international relations in the year ahead. First, a debrief on 2008. Last year's predictions were - predictably - mixed. I was right...
Sorry Brazil, in this analysis the 'big four' are the contender states, Eurasian military-economic powers Russia, India and China plus the rival-cum-ally, the US. Interesting that coinciding with a Condi trip to Beijing comes a possible US military deal with...
Here's the thing, right? There are two clear underlying causes to all the major problems on earth. The first is overpopulation. Overpopulation means that there are too many people chasing after too many resources - energy, water, land etc. which...
If there's one thing that the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq - and arguably, sad to say, Vietnam - have proved is that in order to bring peace and stability to a country you need a lot of troops, a...
A disappointingly weak argument for the candidates' foreign policy apathy during the primary cycle. Surely, as commander in chief of the world's most advanced armed forces and helmsman of its largest economy, the president has some choice? Apparently not: policy...
The pertinent point in the analysis below is perhaps overlooked. The problem with American democracy, from a non-American point of view, is that it is almost wholly concerned with issues of domestic policy. Iraq maybe, but that's because it has...
"Yankee go home, but take me with you!" How long is that going to last? This writer seems to believe tha the European and Chinese ways are catching on more now than the American way. I'm slightly sceptical as to...
We've definitely been down this road before, I seem to remember. This time, however, the intelligence (or lack of it) is more out in the open and thus less liable to be misused for political ends. Interesting in itself to...
There had to be one, and note how this author neatly ties up all the conflicting elements in the current drama: internal opposition to Musharraf; the Balochistan rebellion; Afghanistan, America and the GWOT; China and Gwadar; India and Kashmir. The...
One to save and read for later, and not a lot of new int. But this (conservative) report does highlight the increasing threat of Chinese economic intelligence gathering, cyber warfare ("weapons of mass annoyance") and its general commitment to asymmetric...
Michael Klare, author of Blood and Oil, was in Amsterdam today to talk on his conception of the impending energy crisis. While he was a good speaker, seeing him in person did begin to reveal some of the flaws in...
When I started this blog two years ago, crude was priced at $60 per barrel. Now it's $96. The dollar was $1.21 to the Euro then: now it's $1.44. So go the figures. Something is up. There is a big...
On the back of the BBC's excellent analysis of the Bush administration's failure on Iraq, 'No Plan, No Peace' comes a similar analysis from The Economist. The essence of both is that Cold War thinking is useless in the modern...
Finding a resolution to the crisis on the Turkish-Iraqi border has deep implications for many of the parties involved. Turkey in particular, with its ambitions to be viewed as a leading state in the Islamic world as well as its...
'Myanmar's "Saffron Revolution", like the Ukraine "Orange Revolution" or the Georgia "Rose Revolution" and the various color revolutions instigated in recent years against strategic states surrounding Russia, is a well-orchestrated exercise in Washington-run regime change, down to the details of...
I'll never forget a rather unconsidered remark made to me by a Pentagon official shortly after 9/11. I was writing about the sales of Apache gunships to Pakistan, to which the officer replied: "As long as they're helping us against...
More on Sino-Indian strategic rivalry. Despite an apparent cooling of tension in the last few years, the author notes that Hu Jintao's rise to power comes partly on the back of a hardline attitude towards Tibet, always a bone of...
As both China and India "rise and shine" economically, so geopolitical questions begin to assume greater importance. Whatever the rhetoric from Beijing, China's neighbours are clearly less comfortable about it than ever. That's good for India, which (aside from Pakistan,...
Some bland comments from the Indian external affairs minister. But in the long run, can India really balance the tensions in its relationships with the US and the PRC? The problem for New Delhi is that (aside from Russia, perhaps)...
So it would appear that General Musharraf will hang up his boots on 15 November and maintain his position as a civilian president. So he says, at least, and today's discovery of 18 dead Pakistani soldiers highlights the dangers ahead....
This one's going straight on my blogroll. PostGlobal is a collaboration between The Washington Post and Newsweek that analyses global trends - the fall of America, the rise of China, energy, Islam etc.. In short, it's basically just like my...
A balanced perspective from The Economist, which does look closely at the reasons for leaving: America no longer influences Iraqi politics; disaster has already befallen the nation. But the reasons for staying are even more compelling. The Iraq war |...
Amid reports that former Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, is criticising the Bush regime for its neglect of Asia comes this report. It is difficult to see India and China forming anything more than a perfunctory strategic relationship -...
A lengthy but useful summary of everything that's important in the world right now pertaining to the linkages between geopolitics and energy. Must look out for this Dilip Hiro guy's book. We can now probably add to this list of...
A report speculating that the possible delivery of Pakistan's long-owed F-16s is part of a geopolitical strategy on the US's part to undermine the SCO's (and therefore China and Russia's) influence. America also worries about a popular uprising against Musharraf's...
Beyond its place in the GWOT, could Pakistan become a staging post for the anti-Iran campaign? The author calls it a new Cold War, alluding to Iraq and Afghanistan's growing proxy war status - but don't forget who sponsors both...
Rising China, Shining India; the quagmire in the Persian Gulf and America’s Global War on Terror. These are some of the focal points of international politics in 2007, and none of them exist in isolation. For the giant populations of...
China, Pakistan team up on energy | csmonitor.com "I think most security experts are looking at this very closely because this is the closest access point China has to the Persian Gulf," says Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute...
Bob Hope and no hope, and I believe that Bob Hope is no longer available for USO performances in any case. But seriously, the idea of a 'military hotline' from Washington to Beijing is reminiscent of Cold War thinking. Could...
All eyes were on George W. Bush last night, as he delivered his seventh state of the union address: "For too long our nation has been dependent on foreign oil. And this dependence leaves us more vulnerable to hostile regimes,...
Read between the lines here. It is not altogether becoming of a departing intelligence chief to launch a political storm, but the signs are that the US is growing increasingly discontent with the Musharraf regime. Yes, it wants a scapegoat,...
It is becoming more and more obvious by the day that the post-Cold War world is not, after all, multipolar but bipolar. The great powers are the US and China. This is especially obvious when it comes to Middle East...
Who says no-one talks about philosophy any more? Guardian Unlimited | Comment is free | Bush has created a comprehensive catastrophe across the Middle East Claiming to move Iraq forward towards Lockean liberty, we hurled it back to a Hobbesian...
You don't need a degree in development economics to see who the winners and losers will be. Despite China's economy relying on manufactured exports to the West, it still invests nearly twice as much in R&D as India; I dread...
Well, it would suit Saudi fine. No unwelcome criticism of its human rights record; no irritating demands from Indian and Pakistani workers; just a customer willing to pay high prices for the product. Win-win, apart from the loss of the...
No, not Tiananmen, Tiawan, Tibet and torture (hope that doesn't get this website blocked). Now we're talking about the traingular relationships of China, India, Pakistan and the US. I might add Iran in there as well - see below. Asia...
The last few weeks - which have seen China tighten its grip over Africa and Asia, and the Republicans lose their grip in the Capitol and rethink their whole strategy - has generated a slew of articles over at Asia...
The Faith and the State lecture series closed with a general debate held at the ISHSS in Amsterdam. Moderated by Maarten Huygen of NRC Handelsblad newspaper, the speakers were chosen to embody as best as possible the different strands of...
Oh, irony of ironies. It's not been a good week for warmongering dictators. Heads had to roll for Iraq. First, almost literally, was Saddam's. It was kind of his fault in the first place. Now Rummie's out too: someone had...
Nuclear-weapons proliferation | Going critical, defying the world | Economist.com IT TOOK quite literally a bomb to shift the big powers into concerted action at the United Nations Security Council against a long-defiant, boastfully nuclear-capable North Korea. What will it...
Dutch Multiculturalism in Question A draft report of proceedings in New York, by Jessica Serraris and Philip Sen. Those who managed to get in – people were literally lining up around Washington Square to attend the debate at NYU’s Tischman...
Well here I am. Flags flying everywhere, and no white people on the metro. Those are the two things that have struck me most of all so far, but I haven't had time to fully get to grips with the...
Flying out this morning for the Faith and the State debate with Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Frits Bolkestein, Bas Heijne and Tony Judt. Will report back as soon as possible......
With late-night TV-movie plots unfolding in the Amish school massacre and the Miss World hijacking, it's easy to overlook todays two more sobering stories, but the BBC's Paul Reynolds does make the effort to join the dots. Both the North...
Economics isn't my strong point, but I think that the upshot of the article is: "The US trade deficit is going to decrease its long-term politico-economic strength". Guardian Unlimited Business | | America is living beyond its means The US...
There's been no doubt this last week over who's been generating the most column inches: his publishers must be ecstatic. However, the wisdom of what may have been intended to be Pervez Musharraf's book launch tour is in grave doubt....
But would the CCP be able to implement the solutions named below quickly enough to stem internal revolt? Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs - When the US falls, China stumbles A sharp slowdown or contraction of...
Comment is free: Fighting the wrong war It is ironic that an administration fixated on the risks of Middle East oil has chosen to spend hundreds of billions - potentially trillions - of dollars to pursue unsuccessful military approaches to...
The latest no-brainer from US intelligence - fighting Muslims makes them hate us: The intelligence estimate, completed in April, is the first formal appraisal of global terrorism by United States intelligence agencies since the Iraq war began, and represents a...
"We are used to thinking in terms of conventional warfare between nations, but energy is becoming a weapon of choice for those who possess it." Such is the assesment of Senator Richard Lugar, and it is not a bad one...
What did Richard Armitage mean by "bomb Pakistan back to the Stone Age?" Surely no-one would notice the difference? Joking aside, the recently-published remarks reveal a lot about both regimes. First, let's examine Musharraf's motivation in letting them spill. He...
Even now, five years on, the events of 11 September 2001 possess a certain surreality, a lack of context in the state of things then and the state of things now. It's certainly one of those 'Kennedy moments', which we...
Kofi Annan is trumpeting, in typically understated manner, his progress in talks with Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad over the nuclear issue. But the question is: -"Who is really holding the cards?" Annan would promote his success - after all, that...
Guardian Unlimited | Special reports | US interventions have boosted Iran, says report A report published by Chatham House said the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan had removed Iran's main rival regimes in the region. Israel's conflict with the Palestinians...
China's rise leaves West wondering The Bush administration came to power convinced that China was America's strategic competitor. But then came 9/11. To Beijing's enormous relief, Washington's focus shifted to terrorism, and there was less attention on China's discreet military...
The Beeb's Paul Reynolds takes a brief and orderly look at what's at stake in the current round of Middle East crises (Lebanon invasion, Palestine troubles, Iraq violence, Iran's nukes). Summarized from my own point of view below, it's all...
The Economist dares to say it in this week's leader - this is not just a war between Israel and Hizbollah, or even Israel and Iran, but between American and Iran. And while we're at it, let's tie in Iraq...
...only makes me stronger, and since the likelihood of Hizbollah being wiped out by the weekend looks remote then this is the situation that Israel and the US may have to face. Far from being annihilated by the continued offensive,...
Nice graphics, scary economics. Fears of a slowdown | Economist.com Unfortunately, the Chinese government has few tools at its disposal to manage the pace of growth. Its attempts to tighten monetary policy have been feeble, hampered by its policy of...
Guardian Unlimited | Special reports | Pakistan launches huge nuclear arms drive An interesting exchange: Commodore Uday Bhaskar of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Analysis in Delhi suggested the timing of the report could be intended to influence the...
More doom, gloom and rampant speculation from Asia Times' Chan Akya. However, there is a tenuous point to it: We have to recognize that no established Islamic power has the ability to strike outside of its immediate border. The armed...
Comment is free: The new world immaturity This is one of those moments in history when people recognise that they are in some kind of interregnum. They can describe the past - the old bi-polar world shaped by the conflict...
The Spanish Civil War was really just a prelude to World War II. Could a similar pattern of events alreay be unfolding? Perhaps somewhat fanciful, premature and over-the-top, but at least someone is thinking about it. Asia Times' Chan Akya...
Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay, Rage, rage against the dying of the light. The Economist's choice of title (from a poem by Dylan Thomas) for its...
With Israeli reserves being called up, expect to see a ground offensive launched in the next couple of days. This war is escalating rapidly, and as all students of military history know, it's now easier to keep on going than...
Oxford Professor and all-round commentator Timothy Garton-Ash takes a timely look at the state of the world in mid-2006. His analysis is bleak. Of course, no writer on current affairs has the benefit of hindsight and it'll be a long...
Diplomacy at work again. Probably it'll provoke Hizbollah to continue doing their shit. So, in the spirit of the academic study of international relations, if this is the language of political discourse then there are some things I too would...
Of course it is impossible to predict what course the future will take with regard to potential conflict with China. What follows is thus quite speculative. But there are a few factors pertaining to the period around 2012, the next...
Cold War Standoff, Lukewarm Co-operation or Something Else Altogether? In Iran is embodied all of the issues of our time: nuclear ‘rogue states’; Islamic fundamentalism; energy security. And both the US and its rising rival, China, have vital interests in...
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