DisOrientated - A Weblog by Philip Sen - To Invade or Not to Invade

July 23, 2004

To Invade or Not to Invade - Follow Up

Whoever's going to win the war, the war has to happen first, God forbid. The issue is certainly gaining ground in the international media - for example there's this article in the Christian Science Monitor that argues that:

...the consequences of aggression are far too unpredictable: that an attack could irrevocably harm China's rise as an economic superpower, destroy the fragile unity of the party leadership should it go badly, and set the rest of Asia against Beijing.

I wonder who would join China and who would join the US in a 'coalition of the unwilling'. I can't honestly see any nation expect for the perennial sidekicks, Britain. Possibly Japan, but it's still not permitted to maintain an effective military other than the Self Defence Force. Imagine the furore in China if they were pitted against the Auld Enemy again: 1.3 billion people would go ballistic. South Korea's not going to join in and leave itself exposed to its northern neighbour.

It's not really in anyone's economic interests for Taiwan to return to China: the benefits of regaining the federal reserve that the Kuomintang stuffed in their pockets when they fled in 1949 would be cancelled out by the consequences of panicking investors and possible sanctions. In fact, the main interest is in nationalistic sentiment from China.

But there's a serious intent behind the current exercises, as the International Herald Tribune explains:

Two French-made Mirage 2000-5 fighters from the northern air base of Hsinchu landed on a highway in Tainan, southern Taiwan, where they were refueled and loaded with short-range air-to-air missiles before taking to the skies again.
The air force said the exercise, part of Taiwan's biggest annual military drill, is to "review the air force's capability in using freeways for emergency landings and logistic support in case of war."

The Taiwanese maneuvers came after China kicked off the largest war games of the year, simulating a fight for the control of air space over Taiwan.

Nuclear-powered submarines, warships, the latest model missile destroyers and a guided missile brigade are reportedly involved, along with Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jets bought from Russia.

China had said it would use the joint sea, land and air drills to demonstrate its ability to dominate air space over Taiwan, an essential element in any invasion.

The key words here are 'demonstrate its ability'. Short of actual war, it's one way to show an adversary that you're not joking. It's what the British did in Sierra Leone a few years ago, staging a mock amphibious invasion in order to show demonstrate their capability and intent. The Sierra Leone rebels backed down.

In a way the exercises are a positive thing. If they make both sides nervous in the right way - Taiwan nervous that China might attack it if it declares independence, China that Taiwan would fight back - then the exercises could actually help reduce rather than increase tension.

If there's one thing that could inflame things though it's this. For God's sake don't cook up the Taiwan issue with the Japanese, that really is a recipe for opening a can of noodles.

Posted by Sendover at July 23, 2004 02:03 AM | TrackBack

Comments

Phil,

If you haven't done it yet, PLEASE read the white-paper I link to in the post: "Some Hard Truths on Potential War Across the Taiwan Strait." It is the most definitive analysis I've ever read on this matter. Yes, it is long, but it is absolutely eye-opening. It can be downloaded as a PDF. If you find it as revealing--and objective, just the facts by an expert--as I did, please link to it. It must be read by all of us who make our home in China, on either side of the Strait.

Posted by: Joseph Bosco at July 23, 2004 12:42 PM

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