China was 50 years behind the rest of the world in putting a man into space, and is still catching up on some of its military technology. However, after a very quick Google search I turned up the photographs below.
I had commented on a reference in Vodkapundit that China's expeditionary warfare capability, the kind of capability it would need to secure Taiwan, wasn't up to much. While working at Jane's, I had heard about a former Soviet carrier, the Varyag, that had been laid up in the Bosphorus for years awaiting a transit permit. I thought it was going to be converted into a novelty casino off Macao, but, lo and behold, here it appears to be.
I picked up these pictures via varyagworld.com, a site dedicated to following the enigma of the ancient carrier. Amazing what you can find on the Internet these days, though of course it's impossible to authenticate anything here.
The photo at the top right of the page appears to show a shipyard in Dalian, northeast China. On the right of the picture there is definately a carrier (close up to the left), which by the stripped-down state of it could well be the Varyag.
Interestingly, on the left there appears to be another under construction perhaps, though it could just as easily be an oil tanker.
I'd read the rumours that there were carriers under construction somewhere near Shanghai too, but this appears a bit more concrete. However, assuming these are recent and authentic pictures, and indeed whether it is actually a carrier and not a cargo ship, it would still be years before the carriers were commissionable.
Furthermore, the engineering challenge is not in building the hull - before WWII the first carriers were simply old ships with wooden boards on the top to make a flat deck - the tough part is developing, installing and integrated the various combat systems. With a multi-purpose vessel like a CV it's pretty tough to blend together all the different radars you need for tracking your own aircraft, missiles, ships etc etc..
All of the systems would have been stripped out of the Varyag before it was decommissoned. Furthermore, if the PLAN did have a working carrier, does it have any aircraft with robust enough undercarriages to land on one?
Nevertheless, interesting pics. Click on the thumbnails to enlarge: another close up to the right.
There's an interesting USN magazine article on China's carrier capability or lack thereof here too. It's blocked in China but can be seen via an anonymiser (URL: http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2004/Winter/art6-w04.htm)
GlobalSecurity.org's take on it is here.
Singapore newspaper The Straits Times also published an article back in March, reproduced below:
The Great Chinese Aircraft Carrier MysteryPosted by Sendover at July 25, 2004 11:08 PM | TrackBackBy Anthony Paul
FIRST there was the weird shooting of President Chen Shui-bian and his vice-president. This was followed by what Newsweek's cover, in a bizarre reach for an American angle on Mr Chen's narrow win, called 'Asia's Florida election'. Now, for devoted Internet scourers at least, the China-Taiwan story is becoming even stranger.
Military-minded netizens are abuzz with talk about the allegedly imminent appearance of a Chinese aircraft carrier. Actually, not just one, but three. One California-based news commentator, FreeRepublic.com ('pro-God, pro-life, pro-Bill of Rights, pro-gun... and pro-America'), warns that China, with the idea of seizing Taiwan in mind, is about to spring a 'technical surprise' on the world.
Several websites refer to 'eyewitness reports' of three graving docks at Shanghai, each with carrier construction under way. First mention appears to have come in a lengthy report on the 'Strong Nation Forum' (Qiangguo Luntan), an Internet bulletin board run by the People's Daily Online. It quoted from an article in 'a Russian newspaper, The Independent', headlined 'China's future route to maritime dominance'.
The latest carrier rumours have caught the attention of America's full, frenetic political spectrum: A detailed account also appeared on a website far to the left of any pro-gun posse - the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), an arms-control advocacy group.
The FAS report quotes an 'article published in China' that claimed that one of the shipyards was expected to complete the first 48,000-ton carrier, currently named 'Project 9935', this year. All three ships, claimed the FAS item, 'could be operational with battle groups by 2008-2010'.
The modern People's Liberation Army Navy (Plan) is largely the creation from the 1960s of one of modern China's most powerful generals, Liu Huaqing. He laid down a much-quoted 'blue-and-green water' strategic doctrine.
At first, China should develop a 'green-water active defence': It would protect relatively shallow, thus 'green', territorial waters and enforce China's sovereignty claims in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
In the second phase, General Liu argued, the Plan should develop a 'blue-water navy' - capable of projecting power into the far blue yonder of the Pacific and Indian oceans.
Just before his retirement in 1997, Gen Liu published an article insisting that for this second stage, it was 'extremely necessary' for China, as it became a major trading power, to have carriers to protect its commercial sea lanes.
Reports that the Chinese have been listening to Gen Liu are by no means new or uncommon. Retired US Navy Captain Bernard D. Cole told me that he had repeatedly encountered references to China's interest in carriers during research into his book, The Great Wall At Sea: China's Navy Enters The 21st Century.
Said Capt Cole: 'I found reports of the navy's acquiring carriers as far back as the 1960s. None of them turned out to be true.'
Nevertheless, China's carrier enthusiasts, over the years, did spend time and money on what one observer has described as 'tyre-kicking' - spasmodic studies of Western and Russian carrier technology.
In 1985, China bought the 15,000-ton British-built, former Royal Australian Navy carrier, HMAS Melbourne. Ostensibly the purchase was for scrap, but the Chinese reportedly used its steam-catapult-equipped flight deck for flight training at a North China airfield.
In 1992, the Plan showed interest in buying the Varyag, a partly completed 65,000-tonne carrier that the Ukraine had inherited in the wake of the Soviet Union's collapse. Though that early deal fell through (reportedly as a consequence of pressure on Kiev from Washington and Tokyo), Varyag eventually ended up in a naval yard in Dalian, North China, in 2002.
China has also been the final berth for the 43,000-tonne carrier Minsk.
This former proud flagship of the Soviet Pacific Fleet is now the centrepiece of Minsk World, an amusement park at Shenzhen, near Hong Kong.
A sister ship, Kiev, has gone through a similar transformation into a floating museum and convention centre in Tianjin.
Clearly, despite the Soviet carriers' obsolescence, the Chinese military must have felt that they had something to learn from these carcasses: The US$20 million (S$34 million) paid for Varyag was three times its value as scrap.
So are any lessons that the Plan learnt currently guiding Shanghai's naval architects? Is a Chinese 'technical surprise' just around the corner?
Retired US Navy Rear-Admiral Eric McVadon, a former naval attache in Beijing, told me that the most suspicious thing about the latest report of a 'green-water carrier' is that it contains 'too much detail' - the type of turbines, boilers, radar and so on.
'We've had good reporting about China's work on destroyers, subs, frigates, but nothing official on a carrier near Shanghai,' said Admiral McVadon. 'So if there's a carrier - in fact, not one but three - that we've missed, well that's big news. But there's too much detail here for me to believe it.
'If China's immediate goal is Taiwan, everything the Chinese Navy has been doing about their destroyers, subs and frigates makes sense. This carrier does not make sense. If you put a carrier like this to sea, you're just going to give the US Navy an attractive target.'
So the region can relax about the prospect of Chinese carrier battle groups sharing the Pacific with the US Navy's?
For the moment, probably yes. But one last word from Admiral McVadon on his first reaction to this latest report: 'I told myself, 'I don't really believe this is credible, but one of these days we'll have a report that will be'.'
Thanks for the photos, Mr. Sen. As I mentioned at Vodkapundit, the company that purchased the Varyag was unsuccessful in obtaining a casino license from Macao.
Posted by: P. A. Breault at July 26, 2004 04:30 AM50 years behind "the rest of the world"? at least, who-knows-how-many-years ahead of UK.
Posted by: na at July 26, 2004 11:16 AMActually, it is somewhat of a misnomer to call the Varyag ancient. It is in fact quite modern as it is an upgraded kuznetsov class carrier. The keel was laid down in 1985 and it was just never put to use due to lack of funding and purpose after the Soviet collapse. For comparison's sake, the U.S. Nimitz class carrier designs date back to 1975, a full decade older than the Varyag.
The condition of the Varyag however is pretty poor, as it has been essentially left to rot for quite some time so it is unlikely to be refitted and put into operational service anytime soon.
Posted by: Jing at July 26, 2004 04:27 PMChina got an unforseen chance with the unexpected interest of the international media and public opinion. Presence and mystery of the Varyag is a cost-effective way that cause maximum intimidation against unsinkable aircraft carrier Taiwan.
Posted by: Ahmet at July 26, 2004 05:39 PMNA
I'm not sure who you've been talking to NA, but since the UK is teeny compaired to China and has very little need of an aircraft carrier, I'd call this a practical cash saving measure.
It's only geographically isolated nations with distant enemies who actually need aircraft carriers to project force beyond the reach of their ground installations, for example the US. The Until recently the UK's only enemy was the soviet Union, and they could best be countered by dispersed airfields and not vunerable carriers operating in shallow waters. Also the UK mainly operated long range tornadoes that are not really carrier capable and short range harrier jump jets that operate from light carriers, which make up pretty much, if not all of the UK's carrier force, and were sufficient to stuff Argentina during the Falklands war.
Carriers are expensive, costly to maintain and vunerable to missile strikes and bad weather.
Posted by: Angry Chinese Blogger at July 27, 2004 04:25 PMI was in Dalian two times this year (in January and May) and I saw this ship form airplane. It really looks like a carrier thats beeing built. But there was no activity on the boat at anytime i saw it - no workers, no machines, nothing..
Posted by: Aaron at July 28, 2004 04:40 AMI'm in Dalian right now, which shipyard is it in?
I'm also a little confused as to why China actually wants a carrier, China's only potential target is Taiwan, which could be attacked from the land far more effectively.
Is this just a ploy to get the US to tie up navy units in the pacific, it looks far more like a face creating move than a sensible military program. Look we have a carrier, we have no overseas enemies to attack with it and no trained carrier pilots, but we have it anyway.
It would make far more sense if this carrier was being converted into a landing craft carrier or even a helicopter carrier to ferry supplier to a beachhead in Taiwan but I can't tell from a few vague pictures.
Arron
I would think that this carrier is being refitted rather than extensively reconstructed so much of the work would be going on on the inside.
China WILL continue to work on that ship to make it a quite an advanced carrier and this has little to do with Taiwan. China has other plans.
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