DisOrientated - A Weblog by Philip Sen - Counterstrike: Shanghai

September 30, 2004

Counterstrike: Shanghai

'Taiwan Threat to Attack Shanghai Angers China' says Reuters. Oh really? I thought they might send them a thankyou note and box of mooncakes...

China Daily also reports - watch out for all the super-emphasised phrases in quotation marks eg. Taiwan's "Parliament". Could say the same for "People's" "Republic" of China, but that's by the by.

Difference of reporting is worth noting - see how China Daily suggests that Taiwan would strike Shanghai pre-emptively, while Reuters says it would be as a response to an attack on Taipei. Strangely, I don't believe either of them.

Missiles is another thing I omitted from my very flawed analysis of the military situation. After all, Taiwan appears to have already built a missile base close to the mainland. In effect, if they have enough missiles with sufficient range, they could do a lot of damage to each other.

The main kind of damage the missiles would do, however, would be economic and political. I severely doubt that either the PRC or Taiwan have much in the way of pinpoint accuracy - even the US, despite all its boasts to the contrary of 'surgical strikes' etc. doesn't have a perfect capability.

So what would be the purpose of striking Taipei or Shanghai? I don't see an awful lot. Hit either and you're likely to more or less bring down the economy of either Taiwan or the PRC overnight. Foreign companies, investors and shareholders are going to flee like little girls. This foreign teacher certainly will.

So in a way, the missile threat is an effort to advance a sense of detente. Whatever the conventional military capabilities of either side, and the possibility of a successful invasion, there is little either can do with an economy in ruins and a population in severe unrest.

The PRC here may have the advantage since it will have a tighter grip on its citizens and army should it wish to effect an invasion. But I still don't see the point in invading Taiwan if it and the PRC are in economic freefall.

It's an arms race - the US is building Taiwan's military strength with $18.2 billion worth of kit - presumably to include PAC-3 Patriot anti-missile batteries. The new chairman of the CMC, Hu Jintao, has also pledged to build the PLA's technological capability.

Capability, capability, capability. Cost, cost, cost. Eventually, one side will run out of money, just as in the Cold War.

Let detente prevail.

Posted by Sendover at September 30, 2004 10:19 AM | TrackBack

Comments

I've ben saying for quite some time that the US is using Taiwan to fuel an arms race, the Bush administration knows full well that Taiwan can afford to militarise, but that if China does it will take much needed capital away from infrastructure and welfare reforms, and that by arming Taiwan it will allow militaristic leaders to rise up the ranks in China rather than economicly minded leaders.

Arming against Taiwan is bleeding China and it is shoveling millions of dollars into US arms producers.

On the other side though, if Taiwan were to launch any kind of preemptive strike against a CIVILIAN target like Shanghai, I wouldn't weep nearly so much if China were to nuke Taipei into subatomic dust particles.

We'd better hope that Chen isn't mad enough to declair independance and then launch a pre emptive strike to catc China on the hop.

On the bright side, it would iliminate much of the US pacific fleet and could lead to a reduction in US influence in the region.

Not that the murder of millions of civilians is worth it, but I'd like to see the US out of Asia right about now.

Posted by: ACB at September 30, 2004 06:54 PM

detente?

I think the term you're looking for is MAD (mutually-assured destruction). Whether this stalemate will lead to detente is another matter.

Posted by: Tom - Daai Tou Laam at October 2, 2004 12:30 PM

ACB;

Imperial Japan also managed to "eliminate much of the US Pacific Fleet" and reduced US influence in the region. How did that work out for them?

The PRC leadership is many things but idiotic is not one of them. I trust that they are much more aware of the consequences of nuking a carrier battle group than you seem to be.

And by the way, the only reason the Taiwan-China standoff has not already caused the murder of millions of innocent civilians is precisely because the US is IN Asia.

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