A Good Day For Democracy?
Or is it too early to tell?
Firstly Nepal. The despotic King Gyanendra appears to have performed a U-turn, and is now saying that he will return power to the people. But there are many who are still dissatisfied. The unrest of the last fortnight continued - fortunately there hasn't been another Tiananmen or Andijan, but tomorrow is another day.
Gyanendra may say things like "the source of sovereign authority is inherent in the people", but how far is he prepared to go? And what do the people really want? The Maoist insurgency in Nepal is in some ways a reaction to the institutions of government and monarchy, and things may well get worse before they get better.
I visited Nepal in 2004, and happened to arrive there on the day of a prime ministerial resignation. There were troops on the street, but it seemed to be business as usual in Kathmandu. Things have changed since then, and I'd like to see Nepal return to normality. Strange how countries I come to like - Zimbabwe was another - fall into chaos just after I leave.
Nepal needs the tourism business, frankly: and it doesn't need to become a geopolitical pawn in the heart of Asia. The king has acted in the country's best interests, but he had better be sure that the country will act in his - lest he find himself with his head on a stick.
Meanwhile, Iraq has a new Prime Minister, Jawad al-Maliki. Not a name that we have heard a lot over the last couple of years. He does, however, recognize the ambivalence of the US's policy of divide and rule - you can't dismiss and rebuild the conventional army and state and rely on local militias and mullahs to keep order for you at the same time:
In his first policy speech after being asked to form a government, Mr Maliki said Iraq's militia groups must merge with the country's security forces, the Reuters news agency reported.
"Arms should be in the hands of the government. There is a law that calls for the merging of militias with the armed forces," Mr Maliki was quoted as saying.
Time will tell. I, for one, am glad I'm not in either of these gentlemen's shoes.
