Holding the Cards
Kofi Annan is trumpeting, in typically understated manner, his progress in talks with Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad over the nuclear issue. But the question is: -"Who is really holding the cards?"
Annan would promote his success - after all, that is his job. He is the ultimate international diplomat, a soft talker, not an actor. The upshot of the talks is really just that there will be more talks. This is not necessarliy a bad thing: as Churchill said, "jaw jaw is better than war war".
But it would seem that the stick-wielding US is eager as ever to sideline any success by the UN or the EU in favour of its own agenda:
Mr Annan's remarks came in the face of a US-led clamour for sanctions. They appeared destined to further slow the momentum after EU foreign ministers gave Tehran another two weeks to clarify its position and called for negotiations.
The security council is expected to meet soon to discuss a new resolution that could include punitive measures. But hard-hitting sanctions are unlikely because of the opposition of Russia and China, which have strong economic ties to Tehran.
The US is holding the card of sheer economic and military power; Russia and China command the true influence over what happens in the UNSC.
That leaves Iran itself, and it is holding the rest of the cards. Despite its anti-Israel rhetoric (the report also notes a Holocast satire hosted in Tehran, which does at least cast the Danish cartoons in a new light), it is teetering on the moral high ground at the moment. What right does the US really have to deny it a nuclear power-generating capability?
Iran, it appears, can also choose where, when and how to negotiate wth international institutions. And Iran is also aware that the last months have seen its ascendency as a regional influence, especially after the Lebanon conflict.
Ahmedinejad may look like a taxi driver and sound like a little Hitler, but he may be shrewder than we previously imagined.
Original Guardian story below.
Iran open to nuclear talks, says Annan
Robert Tait in Tehran
Kofi Annan, the UN secretary general, eased the pressure on Iran over its nuclear programme yesterday when he stopped short of condemning it for ignoring an international deadline to suspend uranium enrichment and appeared to accept a key part of its negotiating stance.
Speaking in Tehran at the end of a two-day visit, Mr Annan's comments contrasted with those of President George Bush, who demanded "consequences" after Iran missed last week's UN security council ultimatum. Mr Annan said that he understood the issue better after meeting senior Iranian officials, including President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ali Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, and the foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki.
His comments followed an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report which confirmed that Iran had defied a UN resolution to freeze uranium enrichment, a process that can be used to make atomic bombs. The agency also said it had been unable to confirm Iran's claim that its nuclear programme was peaceful because of a lack of cooperation. The west believes the programme is designed to produce nuclear weapons.
But rather than rebuke Tehran, Mr Annan pointed to an assurance from Mr Ahmadinejad that Iran wanted compromise. "The president reaffirmed to me Iran's preparedness and determination to negotiate and find a solution to the crisis," Mr Annan told a press conference. He said Mr Ahmadinejad had told him that Iran "does not accept suspension [of uranium enrichment] before negotiations".
But he added: "Iran has said it is open for negotiations. All issues can be discussed at the negotiations."
That comment appeared to mirror Iran's position that the demand for suspension should be included in general negotiations and not set as a precondition.
Mr Annan's remarks came in the face of a US-led clamour for sanctions. They appeared destined to further slow the momentum after EU foreign ministers gave Tehran another two weeks to clarify its position and called for negotiations.
The security council is expected to meet soon to discuss a new resolution that could include punitive measures. But hard-hitting sanctions are unlikely because of the opposition of Russia and China, which have strong economic ties to Tehran.
Mr Annan also said he had secured Iran's support for the UN-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon. He said Iran had promised to work with the UN to help rebuild Lebanon's shattered infrastructure. But no mention was made of Tehran's relationship with Hizbullah, which it is generally accepted used weapons supplied by Iran.
In a pointed reproach, Mr Annan condemned a cartoon exhibition in Tehran satirising the Holocaust, which Mr Ahmadinejad last year described as a "myth".
"I think the tragedy of the Holocaust is a sad and an undeniable historical fact so we should really handle that, accept that fact and teach children what happened in world war two and ensure that it is never repeated," he said.
The exhibition was organised by Iran's biggest-selling newspaper, Hamshari, in retaliation for the publication of Danish cartoons depicting the prophet Mohammed in European newspapers earlier this year.
