Musharraf, Karzai, and the Road to Calamity
There's been no doubt this last week over who's been generating the most column inches: his publishers must be ecstatic. However, the wisdom of what may have been intended to be Pervez Musharraf's book launch tour is in grave doubt.
It can't be easy for General Musharraf - who is, after all, an unelected dictator - to take part in so many unrehearsed media interviews, and his temper was clearly fraying. (He was in good company, with Bill Clinton publicly losing it too).
As if facing uncomfortable questions on both CNN's mainstream interview show Late Edition and the satirical Daily Show weren't enough, he also took considerable flak from the BBC's Newsnight which unearthed an MoD-sponsored analysis accusing Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence agency (ISI) of supporting the Taliban.
With his enmity with Afghanistan's Hamed Karzai now in the open, and doubts over the seriousness of his relationship with the US and UK surfacing by the minute, Musharaff was already looking isolated. Then came the blunt announcement by Indian police that the ISI may have been directly involved in the Mumbai bombings.
It's looking like Musharaff's time for retirement is drawing closer: he should go now, before somebody decides for him - perhaps with a bullet. (Is it possible to overthrow a military dictatorship with a coup d'etat? Anything's possible in that part of the world.)
But whether a regime will contribute to Pakistan's stability or decrease it further remains to be seen. Like Tito in the former Yugoslavia, Musharraf has at least been successful in holding together the potential pit of vipers.
A power vacuum could unleash tragic forces, as we have seen in Iraq. The Taliban resurgence would receive a massive boost, with grave consequences for NATO; potential for war with India over Kasmir would increase; Balochs, Pashtuns, Punjabis and other groups would fight it out; and Iran, China and the US would be unable to stand back and watch.
Not forgetting that Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Fantastic. Wolf Blitzer I can understand, but what possessed him to appear on the Daily Show? I ask you.
