Two Balls in Beijing's Court
With late-night TV-movie plots unfolding in the Amish school massacre and the Miss World hijacking, it's easy to overlook todays two more sobering stories, but the BBC's Paul Reynolds does make the effort to join the dots.
Both the North Korean announcement of a potential test and Iran's statement of refusal to suspend uranium enrichment are further blows to the authority of the UN and US interests. To resolve both situations, we have to look to China.
North Korea's activities may have a more long-term strategic effect, especially if South Korea and Japan feel obliged to go nuclear in order to enhance their self defence. This is the first big foreign policy test for new Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, who was quick to condemn North Korea's missile tests earlier in the year, and Beijing will no doubt be looking closely at what he has to say, or not say. But it certainly won't please China if an arms race emerges in East Asia, particularly one involving Japan. That would certainly complicate matters.
If China takes the lead over quelling Kim Jong-Il's unpredictable ambitions, it is more likely to sit back and watch the Iran situation, or even veto snactions in the UNSC.
In many ways, as a major trading partner of Iran, it is in China's interests to allow it to develop its capability and reinforce it as a friendly power in the Middle East in opposition to the US and Israel. Lack of censure from Beijing is sure to ease the flow of oil to China too.
In a sense, it's also fair to say that the Iran crisis is one of America's own making. Through its aggressive Middle East policy and pursuit of the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act, an Islamic nuclear conundrum was in a sense an inevitable consequence. On the other hand, China's support for North Korea in the 1950s have let it with an uncomfortable responsibility on its own doorstep.
While the US and Europe stand relegated the sidelines of both issues, China's role becomes ever the greater. But with nuclear weapons, the wait-and-see tactic is a risky one indeed. If things go wrong, can we expect China to be a responsible stakeholder in preventing a drama from becoming a crisis?
BBC story below. See also Asia Times Online, which examines in more detail US and Chinese relations with the extended 'Axis of Evil'. In short, while American political opinion is against the four, China's economic ties with them are on the increase:
The Bush administration's efforts to isolate Iran, North Korea, Syria and Venezuela economically are implicitly designed to promote "regime change" from unfriendly to friendly government in each of these countries. Beijing has explicitly worked against Washington's isolation and regime-change endeavors by deepening its relations with Tehran, Pyongyang, Damascus and Caracas...
Double blow to nuclear detente
By Paul Reynolds
World affairs correspondent, BBC News website
On the same day, the crises over the nuclear policies of North Korea and Iran have taken a turn for the worse.
North Korea's announcement that it intends to carry out a nuclear weapons test is another grave twist in a crisis that appears to be without end or solution.
And a senior British official has said it is now clear that Iran will not suspend uranium enrichment and that therefore moves to impose sanctions will start in the UN Security Council.
The only hope that can be seen in the North Korean statement is what is not in it. It does not announce that a test has already taken place.
There is therefore some possibility that, by warning of it well in advance, North Korea is simply trying to engage the United States in direct dialogue.
In particular it wants the US to halt moves it has taken to prevent the North from trading weapons parts and carrying out other suspected illegal economic activities.
However, the history of North Korea's nuclear ambitions is such that it is only realistic to take its statement at face value and to expect a test at some stage.
It has previously withdrawn from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has announced that it has built nuclear weapons. A test is a logical technical follow-up.
Any test would cause extreme concern in the region and might in due course propel both South Korea and Japan to go down the nuclear weapons route themselves.
The reaction of the United States to a test is obviously not going to be favourable but is unlikely to be military.
The risk of North Korea launching an attack on South Korea (whose capital Seoul is very close to the border line) in retaliation is very high, probably too high to risk.
The US very much hopes that China will be able to restrain the North Koreans, who rely heavily on Chinese aid, but so far this has not happened.
If the North cannot or will not be restrained, then the world might one day have to live with the North Korean bomb.
The policy then would be to isolate the North even further. It is already subject to sanctions against its nuclear and missile programmes under a Security Council resolution passed this summer.
The hope would be that in the course of time, the regime will collapse internally as other communist regimes have done and that it will no longer be a threat.
But for this to happen the US would have to accept that the wheel on one part of what President George W Bush calls the "axis of evil" will keep on rolling.
As for Iran it is no surprise that negotiations now appear to have come to a halt.
They were being led by the EU's foreign policy representative, Javier Solana, and his conclusion, reported to the permanent five members of the Security Council plus Germany, is pessimistic.
Iran, he has reported back, will not suspend enrichment as demanded by the Security Council.
The next move, according to a senior British official, will be an attempt to get sanctions imposed on Iran by the council.
This will be easier said than done and even if achieved, sanctions are unlikely to stop Iran at this stage.
The US has imposed a wide-ranging embargo on Iran for more than 25 years and it has made no difference to Iran's policy.
"They are all hardliners in Tehran at the moment," a British official commented.
The sanctions were threatened in the resolution demanding suspension that was passed on 31 July and need a separate council decision.
Russia and China have hitherto been opposed to sanctions and France has recently expressed doubts as well.
They might be prepared to take limited steps but the effect of these is not likely to be severe on Iran.
The issue of a military attack on Iran is not on the agenda.
