Won't be able to post again this year, so I'll leave you with a nice little festive roundup of this year's flashpoints.

Predictions for next year? On top of the usual, Somalia, Syria, Zimbabwe and of course Pakistan - watch this space.

Posted by Philip Sen at 1:40 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The problem with dictators is that, whatver their faults, they do tend to hold their countries together. It's hard to say what will happen in the next days after the sudden death of Saparmurat Niyazov, but the medium-term prospects for his country and the region as a whole in 2007 are bleak. Who, or what will replace him? There's no obvious party that could step into his shoes, and with the whole country quite literally revolving around his megalomaniacal projects (for example, the statue of Turkmenbashi that turns to face the sun).

The Economist and I predict imminent collapse. There is no experience or tradition of democracy; the country is in ruins, despite great gas wealth; it boders Iran, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Instability in Turkmenistan will shake the other three, already increasingly wobbly. Another piece of the jigsaw is about to fall in place.

Turkmenistan | An iron ruler dies | Economist.com

But without a mechanism for an orderly transfer of power, coupled with the lack of any democratic tradition in a conservative, tribal society, there is a fear of instability in the country. It is not clear who will take over now. Nor what will happen in the longer term. Pessimistic Turkmen fear that a lost generation, largely uneducated, may fall prey to Islamic radicalism—and create a nasty failed state that could destabilise an already volatile region. As with dictatorships everywhere, the worst consequences of misrule by one man may in fact be felt only after he departs the scene.

In fact, Christmas time has been less and less merry of late. The Asian Tsunami in 2004; the Kashmir earthquake in 2005. This time around we've got near civil war in Palestine and Iraq, and war between Somalia and Ethiopia. Happy new year.

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The problem with the Afghan-Pakistan conflict is that many of those involved belong to neither. The Pushtun are not in league with the post-Westphalian nation-state system, nor are they entrapped by militant Islam. But how long can that continue? An absorbing article.

Pushtunwali | Honour among them | Economist.com

If history is any guide, many Pushtuns in northern Pakistan and southern Afghanistan will continue their drift to Islamist militancy until they are defeated, which looks impossible, or the Pakistani and Western forces are withdrawn. They are then likely to return to their simmeringly murderous tribal ways. That would be better than the current mess. But it would also leave millions of people outside the writ of Pakistan and Afghanistan. If either state is to succeed, the alternative writs of Pushtunwali and jihadist Islam will have to wither. But that will not be soon.

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The PLA is not known for its frequent overseas sojourns and joint exercises, so it's significant that the partner this time around is Pakistan. Also worth noting is the rhetoric on the evils of 'terrorism' and 'separatism' - one man's terrorist etc. etc...

Xinhua - English

"For many years Pakistan and China have focused on economic development and regional stability. At the same time, we are confronting the three evil forces, terrorism, extremism and separatism. China is ready to conduct anti-terrorism with Pakistan to construct the area of lasting peace and mutual prosperity," said Lieutenant General Lu Dengming, Chief of Staff of the Chengdu military region of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA).

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Apparently available in The Dawn newspaper - need to keep searching.

Abstract follows below.

A devastating crisis is unfolding around the Suleiman Range in Balochistan bordering two volatile countries: Afghanistan and Iran. Simmering since the very annexation of Balochistan with Pakistan, this is the fifth uprising and military action supported by air force.

Since December 2005, the conflict has resulted in major loss of life and collateral. The Government of Pakistan has confessed to having used air force and the death toll of 188 lives including 42 security personnel, 88 militants and 62 civilians including women and children and 400 injuries. They have arrested 4,000 persons. Out of these, only 200 have been produced before the courts.

On the other hand, nationalists claim that in more than 12 air raids, over 300 people have died, more than 600 arrested, about 1,000 are missing and about 280,000 have been displaced. They report that in the recent phase, 37 women have been killed and more than 80 injured.

Although the Government declared in December 2005 that the insurgency will be quelled in one month, it practically appears to have failed even after over seven months. On the contrary, militant activities appear to be on the rise in frequency and magnitude.

Time and again, the Government has claimed instigation and support from the bordering countries. Balochs being spread across the borders in Seistan in Iran and Helmand in Afghanistan, this conflict may spread across the borders. In addition the speculation is that India, China and the USA in Afghanistan competing for the Central Asian trade routes may get involved in this conflict.

The paper will take into account the various unfolding events in the region and on the basis of field studies will suggest measures to avoid potential disaster for sustainable development in the region.

* Nizamuddin Nizamani is a trainer, writer and researcher. He has worked with the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) and the NBP Staff College, Karachi, Pakistan.

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Who says no-one talks about philosophy any more?

Guardian Unlimited | Comment is free | Bush has created a comprehensive catastrophe across the Middle East

Claiming to move Iraq forward towards Lockean liberty, we hurled it back to a Hobbesian state of nature. Iraqis - those who have not been killed - increasingly say things are worse than they were before. Who are we to tell them they are wrong?

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Tensions there may be between Afghanistan and Pakistan, but this bizarre episode of the blame game will hardly help them. One can only wonder what Karzai was on when he made his comments.

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan 'out to enslave Afghans'

Mr Karzai's latest verbal attack on Pakistan came while he was visiting a school in Kandahar.

"Pakistan has not given up hope of making us slaves. But they cannot," he said.

"This tyranny against our people is not by the nation of Pakistan, it is by the government of Pakistan."

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You don't need a degree in development economics to see who the winners and losers will be. Despite China's economy relying on manufactured exports to the West, it still invests nearly twice as much in R&D as India; I dread to think what levels it spends on infrastructure.

In fact, according to the OECD, China will soon be the world's second-biggest R&D spender in dollar terms - $136bn this year as opposed to Japan's $130bn and America's impressive $330bn. You have to hand it to the PRC though - they are full of good sense on a lot of things (shame about the environment).

Europe, on the other hand, would do well to up its spending and encourage the things that it is good at - technology and services - rather than buckling to domestic pressures from trade unions and farmers. I know who the smart money is on.

India’s R&D spend lower than China’s

India’s expenditure on research and development is 0.7% of its gross domestic product (GDP) as compared with China’s 1.2%.

Minister of state for HRD D Purandeswari told the Upper House in a reply that North America spends 2.7%, Japan 3.1% and the European Union 1.8% of their GDP in R&D.

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The authorities evidently take these things seriously.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan - Roads blocked in Balochistan in protest at Mengal’s arrest

Nationalist parties called the wheel-jam strike to protest at the arrest of Sardar Akhtar Mengal, the Mengal tribal chief and president of the Balochistan National Party, and hundreds of other Baloch activists over the last 10 days.

A BNP spokesman termed Sunday’s strike a “grand success”. He claimed that police had detained 300 Baloch workers, including the 70-year-old father of a party leader, in Quetta alone and injured 60 protestors during the last three days.

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