Turkmenistan: What Now
The problem with dictators is that, whatver their faults, they do tend to hold their countries together. It's hard to say what will happen in the next days after the sudden death of Saparmurat Niyazov, but the medium-term prospects for his country and the region as a whole in 2007 are bleak. Who, or what will replace him? There's no obvious party that could step into his shoes, and with the whole country quite literally revolving around his megalomaniacal projects (for example, the statue of Turkmenbashi that turns to face the sun).
The Economist and I predict imminent collapse. There is no experience or tradition of democracy; the country is in ruins, despite great gas wealth; it boders Iran, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Instability in Turkmenistan will shake the other three, already increasingly wobbly. Another piece of the jigsaw is about to fall in place.
Turkmenistan | An iron ruler dies | Economist.com
But without a mechanism for an orderly transfer of power, coupled with the lack of any democratic tradition in a conservative, tribal society, there is a fear of instability in the country. It is not clear who will take over now. Nor what will happen in the longer term. Pessimistic Turkmen fear that a lost generation, largely uneducated, may fall prey to Islamic radicalism—and create a nasty failed state that could destabilise an already volatile region. As with dictatorships everywhere, the worst consequences of misrule by one man may in fact be felt only after he departs the scene.
In fact, Christmas time has been less and less merry of late. The Asian Tsunami in 2004; the Kashmir earthquake in 2005. This time around we've got near civil war in Palestine and Iraq, and war between Somalia and Ethiopia. Happy new year.
Comments
Turkmenbashi has also arrested or exiled or blacklisted so many people that there can't possibly be anyone competent left in the nation. Add to that that he has assembled a group of yesmen who have probably dreamed about "their turn" and I think you'll get some infighting (if they even know how to fight anymore) and then Dictator II, it gets stupider. Hopefully at least the new guy will do away with the Rukhnama or reopen the hospitals or something.
Posted by: kzblog | December 23, 2006 10:11 AM