China's Peaceful Star Wars Programme
I think we can forget about this 'China's Peaceful Rise' myth. This month's missile test puts things into perspective - any weapon designed to knock out enemy satellites is not a passive defence but an aggressive capability.
Of course, it may not all be bad: Reagan's 'Star Wars' programme arguably sealed the deal for Gorbachev, forcing him to draw down the arms race leading to the ultimate end of the Eastern bloc. And it would also be hypocritical to suggest that Washington is in any way whiter-than-white, since it is not.
But it's also important to consider why China is doing this. It is not, whatever it may say, under any kind of existential threat from its neighbours. Neither the US, Japan or Taiwan have the will or means to do anything nasty to the PRC.
No, as any defence expert will tell you, the system is intended to knock out enemy communications, surveillance and media satellites - which is what you would do in the first hour of an attack on somewhere like, say...
China hails satellite killer - and stuns its rivals in space | Special reports | Guardian Unlimited
The test was especially troubling because it exposed the vulnerability of America's dependence on low-orbiting satellites, which are used for military communications, smart bombs and surveillance. In theory, last week's exercise could give Beijing the capability to knock out such satellites - a realisation that underlay the protests from Washington.
Australia and Canada also voiced concerns; Britain, South Korea and Japan were expected to follow. "The US believes China's development and testing of such weapons is inconsistent with the spirit of cooperation that both countries aspire to in the civil space area," Gordon Johndroe, a White House spokesman, said. "We and other countries have expressed our concern regarding this action to the Chinese."
Original Aviation Week release is here. Its conclusion:
Although more of a "policy weapon" at this time, the test shows that the Chinese military can threaten the imaging reconnaissance satellites operated by the U. S., Japan, Russia, Israel and Europe.
The Republic of China also operates a small imaging spacecraft that can photograph objects as small as about 10 ft. in size, a capability good enough to count cruise missiles pointed at Taiwan from the Chinese mainland. The Taiwanese in the past have also leased capability on an Israeli reconnaissance satellite.
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Update: Now that the armchair generals have had some time to digest this, the received wisdom is that the test is less about the capability than the signal of intent. It's a brash invitation to the US to re-open the space race, and a not-so-subtle warning to Japan and Taiwan that China is now the boss and they had better not do anything silly like revive a military element to foreign policy or declare independence.
On the other hand, is it also evidence that the PLA is and will act in disregard of CCP wishes, and is thus a sign of a growing schism within the elite?
