A Third Way for China
One thing that continually irritates me about academics is their blind acceptance of the 'China-will-become-a-democracy-eventually' hypothesis, a beloved fantasy that here is dubbed the 'Soothing Scenario'. And, I must admit, that my own opinion that China could buckle under the pressures of nationalism and disenfranchisment has also been done to death.
However, a recent report looks in detail at an alternative (also seen at The Peking Duck)
The View from Taiwan: China expert's Testimony before US China Panel
What if China manages to continue on its current economic path and yet its political system does not change in any fundamental way? What if, twenty-five or thirty years from now, a wealthier, more powerful China continues to be run by a one-party regime that continues to repress organized political dissent much as it does today; and yet at the same time China is also open to the outside world and, indeed, is deeply intertwined with the rest of the world through trade, investment and other economic ties? Everyone assumes that the Chinese political system is going to open up – but what if it doesn't?...
In sum, I think the paradigm of inevitable change impairs America's thinking and its public discussion of China today. The paradigm prevents us from coming up with policies towards a China whose political may not change, in any fundamental way, for a long time. But I think the paradigm of inevitable change will endure -- that whenever American leaders talk in public about China, we will continue to hear some version or another of the Soothing Scenario.
A very good point indeed. And basically, the scenario is based on the CCP successfully doing what they are doing now - maintaining their own power and social stability at the same time. But you can't account for events - which have a habit of messing up ever single prediction ever made.
