PostGlobal
This one's going straight on my blogroll. PostGlobal is a collaboration between The Washington Post and Newsweek that analyses global trends - the fall of America, the rise of China, energy, Islam etc..
In short, it's basically just like my blog, but with flash graphics, real cash backing, plus gurus like Fareed Zakaria on board. The only thing they lack is a decent subeditor, which does let it down a little.
What really caught my eye today was this introduction to 'midrange' trends over the next 36 months. Summary below:
A dramatic global realignment appears to be in progress (and quickening) as the result of several factors:
- The loss of US influence as a result of the Iraq war
- A view across the globe resulting from Abu Ghraib and range of missteps that the US has lost the moral high ground it had enjoyed for decades
- A feeling among global leaders that the US is without a coherent foreign policy strategy...a belief that has started feeding on itself and has emboldened US adversaries
- China's rise, its smooth diplomatic technique, its re-alignment with Russia and its aggressive, clever drive to form new alliances with nations extending from Asia and Africa to South America
- Russia's recent rise combined with Russian President Putin's domestic popularity and his reputation for effectively standing up to the West
- The rise of non-aligned nations emboldened by the inability of the US to effectively use the extraordinary power it possesses
- A view among key global leaders that the US will be bogged down in Iraq for many years (a view heightened by significantly by President Bush's September 13 Iraq speech), thus distracted and unable to respond effectively to key political moves by the range of international players
- A recognition by the international community that the Bush Administration not only hasn't been able to deal effectively with non-state actors (e.g. terror groups like Al Qaeda) but they are holding their own or starting to win
More excellent points culled from the article below.
...supply and demand are no longer the only factors impacting energy price and security. The foreign policies of energy producing nations, nationalization of energy fields, increasing inaccessibility of international oil and gas reserves to highly efficient US energy companies, the growing use of long-term energy contracts and control of pipelines will impact future energy availability and costs...
...China's economic growth and its evolving relationships with Russia, India, Pakistan and potentially Iran, along with its quickly growing influence on non-aligned nations combined with the vacuum being created by the decline in US influence could well make it a power to match or exceed the US global political power far sooner than anyone has thought...
...A big worry is that nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of non-state ideological, religious or political movements where retaliation is impossible (e.g., no one knows who is responsible and/or where they live) or there is no deterent (e.g., the perpetrators believe in Armageddon and welcome retaliation on their hapless and perhaps unknowing host). Most frighteningly, the goal of some of these players (e.g., al Qaeda) may specifically be to foment war among two or more nation states (not where they live) and create a power vacuum in which they can advance their own global objectives (bin Laden's WTC attack very effectively drew the US into stirring the Middle East pot, giving Islamists an opportunity to gain power they could never have created themselves)...
...Right now, it's perhaps all speculation but with at least 2 US strike groups in the area, Iraq in turmoil, Iran moving ahead with its nuclear program, and several nations (not to mention political movements) on a hair trigger, the old saying that "Daggers drawn tend to draw blood" needs to be considered...
