Bhutto Dead
Bloody hell.
Aside from the human tragedy (let's not forget the bystanders who were killed too, not to mention the 140 who died in the last attempt) if anything has implications, this has. I thought that it was Musharraf that was due for a whacking, but this turns things on its head.
Whatever the case, the Islamists will be implicated. Musharraf himself cannot have been so foolish as to have ordered the assassination himself, though one can never rule out the nefarious hand of the ISI or rogue elements within the ex-General's circles of power. The government will be the first target of the people's anger in any case, since they will be blamed for failing to adequately protect her.
Last time round, PPP supporters and civil society remained relatively calm: even during the 'state of emergency' things didn't get out of hand. This time they might. Even now the army will be rolling out its contingency plans for civil unrest. Perhaps another state of emergency is in train.
In many countries, this kind of things tends to rally support for the party of the victim. But lacking leadership - one thing about Pakistani politics is its lack of obvious successors and a pool of talent - the PPP could crumble. That could be good news for Nawaz Sharif, who may be able to cream off some PPP supporters to his own cause.
It's certainly a blow for Musharraf and his claims to legitimacy. He is now in an impossible position, in that any choice he makes will anger a large section of the populace. If he goes on with elections as planned, in the absence of Bhutto a power vacuum could be created: at the very least a weak spot. If he doesn't, he will again be condemned as a dictator and civil society will take to the streets.
Extremist elements within the Islamist parties, the Jamaat Islami, Jamaat-e-Ulema-e-Islam etc. may seize upon events to break out of the uneasy coalition they have with Musharraf and make a bid for more power - especially if Bhutto's death becomes a boon to Sharif, with who the Islamists could ally. That, of course, would have medium-term implications for Afghanistan and the GWOT, since the already ineffective battle against militancy in NWFP will dry up and the madrassas will disgorge even more wannabe Taliban.
The US and UK have lost an ally in Bhutto: unless someone else emerges very soon, they will have to back Musharraf. And he will then be in a better position to dictate terms - if he accepts the hand that put Bhutto back in his way in the first place. The UN Security Council meets today, such is the gravity of the situation. Some are even talking of civil war:
"She has been martyred," said Rehman Malik, the PPP's security adviser.
Riaz Malik, of the opposition party Pakistan Movement for Justice (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf), warned: "The impact will be that Pakistan is in more turmoil - it will be the start of civil war in Pakistan. There is a very real danger of civil war in Pakistan."
India and China also need stability in Pakistan, and will be holding their breath. The future of Kashmir and China's infrastructural plans might also be in the balance. All depends on what happens in the next week.
