"Yankee go home, but take me with you!" How long is that going to last? This writer seems to believe tha the European and Chinese ways are catching on more now than the American way. I'm slightly sceptical as to the former, but there's certainly an element of truth in it.

On the other hand, the strength of America's style of democracy - I say 'style' since it's not an absolute democracy as one gets from proportional representation methods - does mean that we will have regime change in a year. It's the Bush administration that has sown alienation against the US, not America per se. It can still be turned around, though of course the trend is a general one.

Many saw the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq as the symbols of a global American imperialism; in fact, they were signs of imperial overstretch. Every expenditure has weakened America’s armed forces, and each assertion of power has awakened resistance in the form of terrorist networks, insurgent groups and “asymmetric” weapons like suicide bombers. America’s unipolar moment has inspired diplomatic and financial countermovements to block American bullying and construct an alternate world order. That new global order has arrived, and there is precious little Clinton or McCain or Obama could do to resist its growth.

But Europe lacks a coherent foreign policy, even now, and the Treaty of Lisbon probably won't alleviate that fundamental weakness by 2016. Then again, as pointed out, the Euro is now the real tool of Brussels foreign policy.

As for Beijing: "Every country in the world currently considered a rogue state by the U.S. now enjoys a diplomatic, economic or strategic lifeline from China, Iran being the most prominent example." That's a Warsaw Pact in-the-making if ever I saw one.

Note also the logical follow-on from my 2012 scenario and big picture theory of simultaneous bipolar-multipolarity, plus the importance of Gwadar.

United States - International Diplomacy - Economic Trends - World Economy - Politics - New York Times

It is 2016, and the Hillary Clinton or John McCain or Barack Obama administration is nearing the end of its second term. America has pulled out of Iraq but has about 20,000 troops in the independent state of Kurdistan, as well as warships anchored at Bahrain and an Air Force presence in Qatar. Afghanistan is stable; Iran is nuclear. China has absorbed Taiwan and is steadily increasing its naval presence around the Pacific Rim and, from the Pakistani port of Gwadar, on the Arabian Sea. The European Union has expanded to well over 30 members and has secure oil and gas flows from North Africa, Russia and the Caspian Sea, as well as substantial nuclear energy. America’s standing in the world remains in steady decline.

The author Parag Khanna is a senior research fellow in the American Strategy Program of the New America Foundation (sounds disturbingly like PNAC to me, but will let that one go. The essay is adapted from his book, The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order, to be published by Random House in March. Gonna add it to my Amazon wish list, I think.

Posted by Philip Sen at 8:06 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Pak's new port has strategic implications for India: Navy chief-India-The Times of India

The Gwadar port being built by Pakistan with Chinese assistance in its Baluchistan coast has "serious strategic implications for India", Naval Chief, Admiral Sureesh Mehta has said.

"Being only 180 nautical miles from the exit of the Straits of Hormuz, Gwadar, being bulit in Baluchistan coast, would enable Pakistan take control over the world energy jugular and interdiction of Indian tankers," he said delivering T S Narayanaswamy Memorial lecture in Chennai on Monday night.

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A short but insightful look at China's rural economy. It's easy to be blinded by the figures on China's booming export economy, but this correspondent notes that with the changing demography of China the mix of different crops is changing. Pork consumption is on the rise, requiring more grain for fodder: likewise, vegetables are replacing wheat and other staples.

There's a best case and a worst case scenario to this.

In the best case, China's demand for food will fuel agricultural growth around the world as it increasingly turns to imports: this in turn could balance the overall trade deficit and help other countries develop. A rising tide lifts all boats.

On the other hand, accelerating prices in China and the consequent dangers of economically-induced famine comme Amartya Sen could be the final triggers for mass social unrest among the disenfranchised poor. All it would take would be an ecological disaster (perhaps influenced by unchecked environmental degradation) and China would implode just as it has done from time to time over the centuries.

BBC NEWS | Programmes | From Our Own Correspondent | China's farms struggle to meet growing demand

Already, the country that discovered the soya bean has to import most of its needs.

And other crops will follow.

The days of food self-sufficiency in China are numbered.

So, like the rest of us, China will turn to Australia, Africa and South America to fill its belly.

It is small wonder that food prices are climbing everywhere, not just here in China.

Posted by Philip Sen at 5:55 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Super smashing great. International Crisis Group contributes a characteristically swift and in-depth analysis, at an unusually tricky time of the year, along with the usual worthy recommendations.

However, it is another example of the 'democracy is the answer to everything' theory that - however heartwarming - is just far too simplistic.

Examine, if you will, the following:

It is time that the West acknowledges that only a legitimate elected government, led by one of the moderate parties, would have the authority and the popular backing to return Pakistan to its moderate democratic moorings.

Sound fair enough? Yes, but note the caveat in that only a moderate party is deemed fit to lead Pakistan. Democracy don't work like that - if people want to elect Islamists, they will. And to suggest that either Bilawal Bhutto, his dad or Nawaz Sharif will command 'authority' is deeply naive. Sadly, the election of a weak and tainted moderate party could well be the cause of Pakistan's unravelling.

International Crisis Group - After Bhutto's Murder: A Way Forward for Pakistan

The regime’s international backers, particularly the U.S., continue to give signs of wanting to retain Musharraf in the presidency in the belief that he and the military (his sole support base) are the only guarantors of stability in a crucial country. But after Bhutto’s murder, and with the extent of popular anger now evident, elections that are not seen as free and fair would have disastrous consequences. The person of Musharraf has become so unpopular that his continuation in a position of power guarantees increasing domestic turmoil. By continuing to back him, Western governments might not just lose the battle for Pakistani hearts and minds, but could also be faced with the nightmare prospect of a nuclear-armed, Muslim-majority country of 165 million descending into violent internal conflict from which only extremist forces would stand to gain.

Posted by Philip Sen at 9:40 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Mark this moment.

Oil hits record $100 a barrel | Markets | Hot Stocks | Reuters

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices vaulted to a record $100 a barrel on Wednesday as violence in Nigeria, tight energy stockpiles and a weaker dollar triggered a surge of speculative buying, dealers said.

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